یک مدل آماری از ریسک ورشکستگی مالی کاربردی برای صنعت ساخت رومانیایی

The risk of bankruptcy was and is the subject of many research studies aiming to identify the time of bankruptcy, competing factors to achieve this state, the main financial criteria which best expresses this orientation, the bankruptcy, etc. Although there are models that have proved their viability over time, we note that the developed models are successfully applied in space and time in which there were created. In this article we tried to develop a statistical model for prediction of bankruptcy risk, available for the companies which operate in the Romanian space. Thus, we applied a multidimensional analysis technique, namely Principal Component Analysis on two groups of companies in the manufacturing sector, during the period 2000-2011, also including the global financial crisis impact. The financial crisis is the main factor that influenced the economical and financial company's state, starting with 2008, and thus, it is the main discrimination factor with a strong impact on the company's financial condition. The two groups of companies are selected from among the listed companies, which are operating in the manufacturing area of activity, respectively one group consists in the listed companies and another group consists in firms that will be unlisted in the next years. The statistical model can be successfully used to predict the risk of bankruptcy for companies which activate in manufacturing area of activity in Romania.