ثبات در امتیاز اعتبار مصرف کننده: ثبات نمرات اعتبار مصرف کننده: سطح و جهت انحراف امتیاز FICO به عنوان پیشرو برای پیش پرداخت وام مسکن و پیش فرض

This article represents an extension of the expansive credit risk and credit migration literature, prominent in the corporate bond and securities risk pricing literature, to an analysis of the drift of consumer credit scores. A rich data set of residential mortgages is used to observe credit score migration post loan origination and in a test of the ability of credit score transition to serve as a precursor to potential default and prepayment. The results indicate credit scores provide signals and information to investors and servicing agents in a fashion similar to credit ratings on commercial paper as to default potential.