برنامه ریزی مبتنی بر ریسک ساختار شبکه توزیع با توجه به عدم اطمینان در تقاضا و هزینه انرژی

Technical and financial uncertainties may put distribution system planning at risk. In this paper, a new risk-based planning method is proposed which pays more attention to low-probability and high consequences events in energy supplying systems. The proposed approach is adopted for determining the optimal structure of a Medium Voltage network where risk-based determination of the radial network structures is implemented through an uncertainty model of the system's variables based on discrete states, called scenarios. The cost of distribution system planning consists of investment cost, maintenance cost, power losses cost, reliability cost, and technical risk cost. In this paper, appropriate models are proposed to consider the monetary effects of technical risks. The proposed approach is applied to a test system consisting of 52 electric load points and two substations. It is observed that the proposed risk-based method for planning the optimal network structure can properly reduce the cost of extreme events, therefore reducing the concerns of distribution system operators about these possible situations.