یک مدل دو بخشی پویا برای تجزیه و تحلیل رابطه متقابل بین توسعه مالی و رشد صنعتی

Motivated by Feder's two-sector model concerning exports and growth, this article intends to propose a dynamic framework, which bases on the production function theory and consists of two versions of the two-sector (the financial sector and the real sector) model, for analyzing the interrelation between financial development and economic growth in terms of intersectoral externalities. The approach is applied as a prototype to the case of financial liberalization and industrial growth in Taiwan using deflated annual data for 1961–1996. Growth equations are derived and the externality series are estimated. Regressions incorporating the economic/financial variables as well as a linear spline in time variable are set up for testing the externality series. The results show that the financial-supply-leading version is more prevailing in the studied case. The externality series of the supply-leading version are highly related to the financial variables, while those of the demand-following version are related to real variables that affect the industrial production.

Ever since the pioneering contributions of Patrick (1966) and Goldsmith (1969), the relationship between financial development and economic growth has remained an important subject in development literature. A great number of studies have dealt with different aspects of this issue at both the theoretical and empirical levels. The dominant theme, formulated by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) and extended by subsequent researchers (e.g., Galbis 1977, Mathieson 1980, Fry 1982 and Fry 1997; and Pagano, 1993), asserts that the development of financial sector should have positive repercussions on real growth performance. The main policy implication of this school is that government restrictions on the banking system (such as interest rate ceilings, credit rationing, and entry barriers) impede the process of financial development and, consequently, reduce economic growth in most less developed countries (LDCs). Similar conclusions are also reached by the endogenous literature (e.g., Greenwood & Jovanovic 1990 and Bencivenga & Smith 1991; and Roubini & Sala-i-Martin, 1992), in which the services provided by financial intermediaries are modeled and emphasized.

The relevance of the financial development to economic growth has been of great concern in development economics. This article suggests a dynamic framework of two versions of the two-sector model based on the production theory to analyze their causality relationship. Nerlove's (1958) adaptive scheme is assumed in the dynamic process. The causation can then be evaluated in terms of the intersectoral externalities estimated from the model. The framework so designed is proposed as an alternative to the Granger causality test, which uses only the statistical techniques without theoretical reasoning.