توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی:نگاهی دیگر به شواهدی از کشورهای در حال توسعه

The present paper examines the nature and direction of the relationship between financial development and economic growth using both time-series and panel data from 30 developing countries for the period 1970–1999. The choice of the sample was determined by the availability of data. As such, the exclusion of other developing countries is due to the fact that the data on these countries are missing for some years. The empirical results strongly support the view that financial development and economic growth are mutually causal, that is, causality is bidirectional. There is also some support for the other views presented in the literature (supply-leading, demand-leading, and no relationship) but it is not as strong as that for the bidirectional causality. Moreover, the findings of the present paper accords with the view of the World Bank and other empirical studies that the relationship between financial development and economic growth cannot be generalized across countries because economic policies are country specific and their success depends, among others things, on the efficiency of the institutions implementing them.

Ever since the pioneering works of Goldsmith (1969) and Shumpeter (1932) and more recently of McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973), the relationship between financial development1 and economic growth has been one important area of discussion among economists. Later studies, both theoretical and empirical, have attempted to deepen our understanding of the different aspects of this relationship by exploring the existence of this relationship, the direction of causality between the two variables, and the channels of transmission between them. A number of recent papers have surveyed this literature (see, for example, Demirguc-Kunt & Levine, 1996; Levine, 1997 and Thakor, 1996). Therefore, rather than presenting another review, in the present paper, I will briefly discuss the main streams of thought emanating from this literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth by way of introduction to the empirical analysis to follow.

This paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in 30 developing countries using a Granger-causality test within an EC framework. The empirical findings and their policy implications can be summarized as follows. First, there is strong support from both time-series and panel data for the view that the causality between financial development and economic growth is a bidirectional one. Second, there is also some support for other views including the “supply-leading,” the “demand-leading,” and the view that there is no relationship between the two variables although this support is not as strong as the one for the “bidirectional” view. Third, our findings also show that the results are country specific and tend to vary with the kind of proxies used to measure financial development. This can be attributed to the fact that these countries differ in their level of financial development due to differences in policies and institutions. These results accord with the view of the World Bank that economic policies are country specific and their success is a function of the institutions that implement them (World Bank, 1993). Other studies (see, for example, Darrat, 1999 and Demetrides & Hussein, 1996) have also reported results that are country specific with a high degree of variation across measures of financial development. Finally, some of the results of the present paper show a negative correlation between financial development and economic growth. These results were also reported in other studies as I mentioned earlier. In addition, they can be attributed to the business cycle that these countries have experienced during the 1980s and/or to the weakness of their financial environment, which have encouraged the inefficient allocation of savings and led in turn to the negative growth in real GDP.