استفاده از بوت استرپ دوگانه برای بررسی اثرات پیشرفت تکنولوژیکی بر عملکرد مصرف انرژی کل در چین

This paper proposes a total-factor energy consumption performance index (TEPI) for measuring China's energy efficiency across 30 provinces during the period 1997 to 2012. The TEPI is derived by solving an improved non-radial data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, which is based on an energy distance function. The production possibility set is constructed by combining the super-efficiency and sequential DEA models to avoid “discriminating power problem” and “technical regress”. In order to explore the impacts of technological progress on TEPI and perform statistical inferences on the results, a two-stage double bootstrap approach is adopted. The important findings are that China's energy technology innovation produces a negative effect on TEPI, while technology import and imitative innovation produce positive effects on TEPI. Thus, the main contribution of TEPI improvement is technology import. These conclusions imply that technology import especially foreign direct investment (FDI) is important for imitative innovation and can improve China's energy efficiency. In the long run, as the technical level of China approaches to the frontier, energy technology innovation and its wide adoption become a sustained way to improve energy efficiency. Therefore, it is urgent for China to introduce measures such as technology translation and spillover policies as well as energy pricing reforms to support energy technology innovation.