استفاده از تکنیک های مدل سازی جزء به جزء برای تولید مدل فاجعه ای جزء

In this paper we show that integrated environmental modelling (IEM) techniques can be used to generate a catastrophe model for groundwater flooding. Catastrophe models are probabilistic models based upon sets of events representing the hazard and weights their likelihood with the impact of such an event happening which is then used to estimate future financial losses. These probabilistic loss estimates often underpin re-insurance transactions. Modelled loss estimates can vary significantly, because of the assumptions used within the models. A rudimentary insurance-style catastrophe model for groundwater flooding has been created by linking seven individual components together. Each component is linked to the next using an open modelling framework (i.e. an implementation of OpenMI). Finally, we discuss how a flexible model integration methodology, such as described in this paper, facilitates a better understanding of the assumptions used within the catastrophe model by enabling the interchange of model components created using different, yet appropriate, assumptions.