خطر کشور و یکپارچگی مالی: مطالعه موردی از آفریقای جنوبی

This paper examines the importance of economic factors in a time-varying beta model of country risk before and after the occurrence of financial integration for South Africa's stock market. We examine how fundamental economic factors impact the variation of South Africa's country risk over the period 1993–2008. We find that exchange rates and gold prices are significant economic variables that induce significant volatility in South Africa's beta during the pre-financial integration period through June 1998. Post-financial integration, South Africa's beta rises and fundamental economic factors cease to be significant in determining its variation, a result consistent with an integrated financial market.