طراحی مدیریت پروژه : یک نماد علمی و صورت گرایی بهبود یافته برای محاسبات ارزش کسب شده

A new formalism and a corresponding new notation for earned value analysis are presented. With compact, consistent, mnemonic notation, earned value calculations become more transparent and flexible, leading to insights about standard quantities and advances through new measures. As an example of the notation’s utility, it is used to generate a modified earned value approach that weights quantities according to their position in a project’s timeline.

Thomas Kuhn introduced the now oft-misused term “paradigm shift” in his seminal book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions[1]. Scientists build models or “paradigms” to explain the composition and behaviour (physical and biological) of the universe. Most models work well when first proffered. With time, however, improved technology and more sophisticated experimental techniques lead to more and better data. Deeper thinking with these new data eventually shows shortcomings, inconsistencies, or downright errors in the accepted paradigm of the day. At first, the community responds with minor reconstructions of the paradigm so that it agrees with the new data and understanding. Eventually, however, the new perspective of the world differs so greatly from that provided through the old paradigm that a shift occurs. The old paradigm is replaced by a new one, e.g., special relativity replaces Newtonian dynamics at speeds near that of light. Such new models give new perspectives that provide better explanations of the world in which we live. In a manner analogous to shifts in scientific theories, earned value analysis began, we hope, a paradigm shift in project management. The actual progress of any given project has not changed, but our measurement techniques have changed because of a new perspective. Separate views of budget or schedule should not be accepted. Instead, good management demands the integrated view provided by earned value analysis. However, whatever their ultimate worth, paradigm shifts do not occur overnight, either in the physical sciences or in the Sciences of the Artificial[2], which include project management. In these sciences, according to Simon, “Everyone designs who devises courses of actions aimed at changing existing situations into preferred ones…” Just as earned value itself is a design aimed at changing the estimation of project progress into a “preferred situation”, this contribution of a new notation for earned value is a design that aims to further the ongoing paradigm shift.

This paper presents a new formalism that can solve the problem of the historically “arcane and ponderous”[8] notation used in earned value analysis. I have reproduced the standard earned value parameters in this new formalism; Table 1 shows the translation of standard terminology into the new notation, and Table 2 shows additional quantities defined here. The symbols carry precise and distinct meanings. This modern symbolic notation for earned value calculations can accomplish several objectives: (1) Manipulation of the earned value parameters is easier and faster. (2) Project management will be elevated as a research discipline. (3) Because technical presentations about earned value would be easier to understand, project managers might use earned value analysis more frequently. (4) More use of earned value would further its development and lead to more streamlined processes and possibly to advanced and more useful methods (e.g., non-linear predictions). This notation should make smoother the path to more subtle and more productive uses of earned value. The two examples immediately above show how the notation can demonstrate common project management truisms mathematically (to aid instruction) and can facilitate new developments in earned value, such as giving higher weights to more recent tasks. Learning this formalism requires some study, but only elementary algebra lies behind the notation. The consistency and clarity that result show the advantages of this new view, and these benefits can assist the transition from earned value analysis to earned value management by a wider segment of the project management community. The notation has already been used on the problem of predicting future project efforts in terms of earlier work efficiency. An improved solution to this “to complete” problem, which lies beyond the scope of this paper, is presented elsewhere [14]. Acknowledgements