اکتشاف نقش انتظارات در مدیریت ریسک ارز

Stochastic dominance and expected utility criteria are used to explore the effects of unique expectations on foreign exchange investors. This paper illustrates the use of stochastic dominance and expected utility in selecting appropriate hedging strategies, when an individual investor's expectations of the future do not match the expectations implied in market prices. The investor is assumed to hold one unit of foreign currency. This position can be hedged by selling futures, writing covered call options, or buying protective put options. Preferences are assessed based on the stochastic dominance criteria, as well as the expected utility criteria under asymmetric information. When the investor's expectations regarding the domestic interest rate, volatility, or both are different from those of the market, we find clear preferences regarding hedging strategies. The major finding is that different sets of expectations lead to different optimal hedging strategies. Based on the particular parameters analyzed, an investor is always better off with some form of hedging.