پیامدهای رفتار بخش خصوصی در بخش دارایی عمومی

This paper investigates empirically the effect of private sector behavior on public finance sector for a sample of Central and Eastern European countries over the 2000-2011 period. Among the measures of private sector behavior we used the current account balance adjusted with the government balance, the financial account balance of the balance of payments, the final consumption expenditure of households and the evolution of the real economy. We find strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis that imbalances built up in the private sector would eventually spill over to the public sector under the form of government deficit and increased public debt. In the context of European integration we conclude that the Stability and Growth Pact and the Maastricht convergence criteria would need to account for this relationship when determining critical threshold values for the macroeconomic variables.

Starting with the early 2000s to the end of 2007 macro-financial conditions were very favorable in a global perspective. Economic growth was robust and stable, liquidity in capital and money markets was abundant, profitability in the financial sector was high, and asset prices were constantly rising. All of these were also accompanied by an important increase in the debt levels in the private sector and public finance sector as well. Financial markets started melting in the summer of 2007 as a result of the intensification of deterioration in the US housing market. In the case of Europe we were the witness of a double spillover effect: in the first step,spillover came from the U.S. financial system to the European financial system, and in the second step after roughly two years the prolonged stress in the European financial system resulted in the deterioration of public finances. The current sovereign turmoil in the euro zone reflects how fragile can an economy become in front of the relentless forces of the market. Many economists and politicians have identified that public finances have become unsustainable, unhealthy and they undermine future growth potential. Similarly to every phenomenon in the science of economics, the sovereign debt crises also have root causes, root driving factors which determine the path of retrospectively unhealthy public finances. The aim of this research is to study the effects of such a driving factor, namely the behavior of the private sector. The results of the research can serve as a useful tool for policy makers in determining policy responses addressing imbalances with respect to debt accumulation in the private and public finance sector. In the context of preparations for adopting the euro, another important feature for the policy makers would be the set up of paths and guidelines with respect to harmonization of the behavior patterns with the ones characteristic for the euro zone countries. To be more precise, we are referring to characteristics which the euro zone as a whole would commit to itself.

The recent sovereign debt crisis in Europe affects not only the euro zone member states, but non-EMU countries as well. Many of the Central and Eastern European countries will have to undertake more fiscal consolidation in the near future to reverse the trend of rising debt ratios caused by the recent crisis and to comply with the European Union fiscal framework. Therefore, the question of how to design fiscal consolidations and how to preserve fiscal soundness is of great interest. In our paper we have investigated the relationship between private and public sector behavior on a sample of ten Central and Eastern European EU member countries. The analysis comprised the period between 2000Q1-2011Q4. Our findings showed that there was a divergent behavior among the studied countries, some of them reacting pro-cyclic and others anti-cyclic to the increase in the private sector consumption. The significant impact of the private sector behavior on the government balance, indicates that the Stability and Growth Pact and the Maastricht convergence criteria should need to account for this relationship when determining threshold values.