شکست های ساختاری در دارایی های عمومی در کشورهای اروپای مرکزی و شرقی

This article studies the evolution of quarterly government Total Deficit (TD) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and debt to GDP ratios of seven Central and Eastern European member states (CEEC-7) of the European Union over the period 2000 Q1 to 2011 Q2. Alternative unit root tests are applied to identify the number and date(s) of structural break(s) in the fiscal ratios. The breakpoint date(s) are estimated endogenously. The best performing unit root test is determined by the adjusted R-squared metric. The level and trend of fiscal ratios are estimated by using breaking trend regression models. Unit root tests performed for the period 2000 Q1 to 2007 Q4 identify the number and date(s) of structural break(s) in fiscal variables before the global economic crisis. Unit root tests and breaking trend regressions are estimated for total Eurozone TD to GDP and debt to GDP to compare the evolution of total Eurozone fiscal ratios with those of each CEEC-7.

After the political and economic changes that started in 1989, the ‘Central and Eastern European Countries’ (CEECs) have exhibited a catch-up process to the developed Western European countries. During this process, ten CEECs have joined the European Union (EU).1 Moreover, three CEECs have adopted the common currency: Slovenia, Slovakia and Estonia. The other seven EU member CEECs (CEEC-7, henceforth) are committed by the ‘Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union’ (Treaty, henceforth) to join the European Monetary Union (EMU).2 This article was motivated, at least, by the following two reasons. First, several previous works emphasised the importance of a prudent and sustainable fiscal policy during the EMU convergence process.3 Second, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis of the United States and the subsequent global financial and economic crises influenced the fiscal position of CEECs negatively, affecting their future EMU accession possibilities.4 The objectives of this article are: (a) to identify structural breaks in government Total Deficit (TD) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and government debt to GDP ratios for the CEEC-7 states over the 2000 Q1 to 2011 Q2 period; (b) to study the evolution of these fiscal variables, considering structural changes in their level and trend over the sample period. Previous works on the fiscal convergence process of the CEECs have employed models incorporating only one structural break (e.g. Kočenda et al., 2008 and Hanousek and Kočenda, 2010). We consider unit root tests without structural breaks, with one structural break and with two structural breaks, and select the best performing model to determine the number and date(s) of structural break(s) in fiscal variables. Moreover, we use breaking trend regression models, which estimate the level and trend of fiscal ratios, for the periods before and after the breakpoint date(s). Compared to previous studies, the data set covers an extended time period and additional CEECs. By considering data series until 2011 Q2, we study the evolution of fiscal variables before and after the beginning of the global economic meltdown of 2008. We provide a context for the results by stating international circumstances and specific policies and measures in individual countries from 2000 Q1 until 2011 Q2. We also perform the following robustness analysis: (a) we extend the two-structural break model of L Lee and Strazicich, 2003 (LS hereafter) by including a third breakpoint to validate the methodology considering up to two breakpoints; (b) we estimate the unit root tests for the period before 2008 to see if there is more than one structural change before the crisis; (c) we estimate all unit root tests and the breaking trend regression model for the total EMU175 and compare the results with those for the CEEC-7s. The remaining part of this article is organised as follows. The fiscal data set is presented in Section 2. The econometric models are summarised in Section 3. In Section 4, the empirical results are reviewed, and a robustness analysis is presented in Section 5. Finally, a summary and conclusions are given in Section 6.

In this article, we study the evolution of quarterly government TD to GDP and debt to GDP ratios of CEEC-7 states over the period 2000 Q1 to 2011 Q2. We apply unit root tests without structural breaks (ADF test), with one structural break (LS, 2004) and with two structural breaks (LS, 2003). We select the model with the highest View the MathML source metric to determine the number and date(s) of structural break(s) in the fiscal ratios. We use breaking trend regression models to estimate the level and trend of fiscal ratios for periods before and after the breakpoint date(s). The unit root null hypothesis is always rejected for the highest View the MathML source model for both fiscal variables and for all countries. We find that the LS (2003) specification, including two structural breaks, is the best performing model for the TD to GDP ratio for all countries. Moreover, the LS (2003) model is also the best specification for the debt to GDP ratio for all CEEC-7, except for Bulgaria and Romania, which exhibit a single structural break. For all countries and fiscal variables, we find a structural break associated with the global economic crisis, with the exception of the Hungarian TD to GDP ratio. Estimation results show that the trend of debt to GDP and TD to GDP has increased around this structural break. The trend of debt to GDP has increased significantly in Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria. The trend of TD to GDP has increased significantly in Latvia and Lithuania. Our findings are consistent with those of Lewis (2010) and Staehr (2010). The estimation results after the last breakpoint date show that the debt to GDP has increased for all CEEC-7 governments. This increase is observed from a level below the 60% benchmark level for all countries, except for Hungary. Moreover, the TD to GDP ratio after the last structural break has increased from a level below the 3% benchmark level for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Poland. This ratio has remained constant above the benchmark level for Latvia. The TD to GDP ratio has decreased from a level above the benchmark for Hungary, Lithuania and Romania. We perform several robustness tests (a) to validate the methodology considering up to two breakpoints; (b) to verify if there is more than one structural change before the crisis; (c) to compare the finding of each CEEC-7 with total EMU17. The robustness analysis suggests that the econometric specifications applied are appropriate for the CEEC-7 fiscal variables and yield findings that are consistent with international circumstances and specific policies and measures in each state.