تقاضای مصرف کنندگان ایالات متحده برای صرفه جویی در جایزه مرتبط: شواهد جدید در محصول جدید

We report on the potential American demand for prize-linked savings, a savings account that also awards prizes. Our survey data suggests significant interest among individuals with little actual savings, without regular saving habits, who play lotteries extensively, and are optimistic.

Prize-linked savings (PLS) products offer savers a return in the form of the chance to earn prizes (cash or goods) in combination with or instead of traditional interest income. The probability of winning prizes is determined by account balances or new deposits, and the aggregate prize pool can be set to deliver market returns to all savers. The odds of winning vary based on the program's economics and prize structure; however, the product guarantees no principal loss. PLS products have existed since 1694 (Murphy 2005) and are currently offered in numerous countries—including the U.K., Sweden, and many Latin American and Middle Eastern countries. They are not available in the United States, where state laws and federal regulations make their issuance problematic. The US demand for lotteries suggests that interest in a savings vehicle offering chances to win a high payout prize could be substantial. Despite their long history, PLS are relatively unstudied. Guillen and Tschoegl (2002) survey programs around the world, and report that in Latin America, PLS products appeal to low-income and unbanked individuals. Tufano (2008) looked closely at UK premium bonds. In South Africa, the Million-a-Month Account offered by First National Bank generated 750,000 accounts and raised over 1.2 billion Rand in two years time (Cole et al. 2007). Kearney et al. (2010) review this and other evidence. While PLS products are popular internationally, their appeal to US consumers is unclear. If there is latent demand, however, which consumers would be most attracted to PLS? This note provides evidence of likely demand by using market survey techniques.

Our survey results provide a first look into the possible American demand for prize-linked savings. These results are promising on a few dimensions. First, among the low-income population we studied, there was interest in a savings product that provides the chance to win prizes as part of its return. Second, this product appeals to non-savers, who do not save with traditional products. Third, the product appeals to lottery players, and by virtue of this fact, has the potential of turning gambling activity into demand for savings. Even a small substitution effect between lottery spending and PLS could lead to an increase in aggregate savings. Evidence suggests that “on average, low-income households spend a larger percentage of their wealth on lottery tickets than other households” (Kearney 2005:16). If PLS can tap into this substantial demand, it could become an important channel for generating savings among those who may need it most.