اقتصاد سیاسی یکپارچگی اقتصادی شرق آسیا

The paper provides a political economy analysis focusing on the uneven bargaining power between the Asian nations and the hegemons under Pax Britannica and Pax Americana. It explains how the Washington pressure on Asian nations to adopt the American model had the unintended consequences of pushing these nations to form their own Free Trade Areas. It deals with the quality of American economic “advice” to Asian nations, before and after the 1985 Plaza Accord. The paper treats the post-1997 steps towards closer economic integration as part of a continuum aimed at increasing the Asian nations bargaining power in the global economy. The analysis recognizes the obsolescence of the post-1945 global financial order, being incompatible with Asia, currently the largest net lender in the world. The paper details the hurdles facing Asian nations in their attempt to weave closer cooperative arrangements and juxtaposed them with their counterparts in existing trading blocks.

The concept of integrating the Asian economy is not a new one. In the 19th century the British toyed with the idea of setting up a Commercial Union that would haveincluded its colonies in Asia. In the late 1930s, Tokyo took active steps to establish the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in order to translate this promise into reality. The proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in Asia has become a major global trend in the post-cold war period. One form of PTAs involves the signing of bilateral and regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). A free trade area is formed when a group of nations agree to eliminate tariffs between themselves, but maintain their external tariffs on imports from the rest of the world. 4 In the last few years, most Asian fi rms and governments have expressed their strong support for the formation of free trade areas in Asia. Most PTA ’ s represent a regional approach to trade liberalization as they involve geographically contiguous countries. Other than the FTAs, they include, customs unions, 5 common market 6 and economic union. 7 A related arrangement is that of a monetary union which establishes a common currency among a group of nations. A central monetary authority determines the monetary policy for the entire group. 8 The 1997 fi nancial South East Asian crisis provided a major reason for Asian nations to seriously consider the formation of FTAs in the region. Asia is a continent with tremendous potential. For example an FTA that would consist of ASEAN and China has a market that represents a population of 1.8 billion, an annual GDP of more than $2 trillion and total trade of $1.2 trillion ( Hefeker & Nabor, 2002 , p. 14). It would be one of the world ’ s major free trade zones, similar to those of the EU and the US ( Chung-ming, 2003 ). The EU has already succeeded in making the European region an in fl uential block that is on a par with the United States in many fi elds. It is rather misleading, however, to treat Asian integration as a mere reaction to the 1997 crisis. The formation of FTA ’ s in Asia is intimately related to the process of modernization in the region. The struggle for modernization in all Asian countries invariably has involved close interactions with vastly powerful hegemons. This was true under Pax Britannica in the 19th century and equally true after 1945 under Pax Americana . Due to the large inequality in the bargaining power between the Asian nations and the important trading powers, for decades these nations have been subjected to frequenteconomic pressures. Thus, in a global environment where the bargaining power between Asian nations and the hegemons has not been equal, it is more appropriate to consider the formation of FTA ’ s in the region not as a singular event but as part of a continuum aimed at pushing the Asian modernization process along the upward spiral. Though the analysis deals mainly with developments in the second half of the 20th century, a logical starting point is the 19th century when the Asian countries were still underdeveloped and, except for Japan, colonized. The paper is divided into the following sections. 1. Modernization under Pax Britannica 2. Modernization under Pax Americana 3. Theoretical discussion of free trade pacts 4. Post-1997 steps towards Asian integration 5. Asian integration in a comparative setting 6. Challenges to Asian integration 7. Conclusions

Given the long history of the uneven bargaining power between the developing nations in Asia and hegemons, it is more appropriate to consider the formation of FTA ’ s in theegion not as a singular event but as part of a continuum aimed at redressing historical inequities. Under the liberal trade system of Pax Britannica and Pax Americana international relations were based on realpolitik . The trade system under Pax Britannica was not conducive for modernization. Most Asian nations were unable to industrialize because of their inability to impose protective tariffs. Pax Americana , on the other hand, gave many Asian nations an opportunity to industrialize their economies. It was in Washington ’ s self- interest to see that pro-west nations in Asia modernizing their economies to prevent them from falling to communism. By allowing Japan and its neighbors to follow a policy of export-promotion in a multilateral trade regime, 122 underpinned by the purchasing power of the huge American market, Washington played a constructive role in region ’ s modernization. A by-product of this policy was that over the years the Asian nations have been able to expand trade relations among themselves. This will prove quite advantageous in the formation of Asian FTAs. After the Plaza Accord in the mid 1980s there was the rise of American domestic pressure groups, which succeeded in making their narrow-minded agenda top government priority. These groups were able to control Treasury Department and through it made the IMF put pressure on the developing nations to prematurely liberalize their capital accounts. It is rather interesting that Washington ’ s lofty ideas of equating laissez-faire economics with political freedom converged conveniently with the interests of Wall Street. The desire of Wall Street to lend short-term capital to Asian fi rms was a serious development that later proved detrimental to the Asian economies. The IMF has always been an instrument of American foreign policy. In the post-1945 economic order, Asian nations were completely excluded from having any voice in global fi nancial affairs. 123 Westerners control both the World Bank and the IMF. Asian nations, unlike their counterparts in Europe, were not allowed to determine their own economic agenda. Washington vetoed attempts to establish any forum that concerned itself with an Asian-initiated economic agenda. 124 To remedy the above inequities, nations in the region have been clamoring to form FTAs. The FTAs are a direct response to the establishment of the EU (1993) and NAFTA (1994), the rise of China and the 1997 fi nancial meltdown. The crisis was a catalyst that replaced the pre-1997 apathy with a collective determination to fi nd a common vision. Asian nations are now realizing that they can attain more of their goals by acting together than by going their separate ways.The formation of Preferential Trade Agreements in Asia is bound to produce much more bene fi ts to the members of Asian FTAs than their counterparts in the EU and NAFTA in two major areas: substantial improvement in bargaining power and in the quality of policy making. One bene fi t of integration is that it will considerably strengthen the ability of the Asian nations to withstand external pressures and preserver their system of industrial organization. Despite its imperfections, the dirigiste system has proved its ability to achieve rapid modernization in the region. Concomitant with effective modernization is the increase in the size of the middle-class, which is a prerequisite to the rise of democratic institutions. Thirdly, on the political front, the creation of FTAs means that each nation has a stake in one another ’ s economic interests, thus reducing political frictions. Fourthly, FTAs have the potential of serving as a regional security framework. The challenges facing the region, however, are immense. They are institutional, economic and political. There is a lack of institutional setup to serve the cause of integration. On the economic front, the huge disparity in the levels of economic development among the Asian nations must be abridged, and the productivity gap between world class manufacturing sector and other sectors should diminish. The fi nancial sector must be strengthened in order to achieve higher rate of returns on the Asian large savings. This is particularly true as some Asian nations in the region face the problem of aging population. 125 It must be admitted that liberalizing the fi nancial sector while keeping the basic systems of Asian industrial organization functioning is a matter that requires delicate balance and deft policy making. There are also the painful memories of the past which must be honestly faced. Tokyo and Beijing should settle past historical issues and prepare themselves for the day when both will jointly carry the mantle of leadership in the region. There is far more that unites the two nations than divides them. Speci fi cally, deep economic ties are becoming a more powerful and uniting characteristic of the two colossal giants. Both are indispensable for the establishment of viable Asian leadership. 126 The long-term prospects of the American economy makes it incumbent on Asian policy makers to plan for the day when the US is no longer the fi rst among equals. This is great opportunity of our time. It can be seized as long as Tokyo and Beijing become engaged in the task.In short, the economic forces are pushing the nations in the region to embrace the cause of modernization under conditions that in the long run would help to promote stability and peace. The policy measures undertaken by Asian nations after the 1997 crisis paints a picture of guarded optimism. Notwithstanding the rivalry between Tokyo and Beijing, small countries in the region have been able to bridge the differences between the two powerhouses of Asia. Despite negative initial reactions to certain proposed initiatives, there has always been willingness to draw on the Asian values of patience, fl exibility, relations of trust between policy makers, and personal networking in order to achieve necessary compromises. If this spirit is to continue, this bodes well for the future of Asian integration and to the rise of a vigorous trading block that will be able to negotiate with existing ones from a position of equality.