نقش توسعه مالی در رشد اقتصادی: تجربه تایوان، کره و ژاپن

Since the financial crisis broke out in East Asia, the importance of financial development and stability had been noted. This paper tries to examine the relationship between financial development and the source of growth for three Asian economies, namely, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan. Particularly, we wish to emphasize the role of financial development and structure (including banking and stock markets), monetary and financial policies, as well as the degree of international capital mobility in the economic growth processes. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and principal component analysis, we find that (1) high investment had accelerated economic growth in Japan, while high investment to GDP ratio did not necessarily lead to better growth performance if investment did not have been allocated efficiently, e.g. in Taiwan and Korea cases; (2) real export growth rate had contributed to Taiwan and Korea; (3) the finance-aggregate had positive effects on Taiwan's economy, but had negative effect on other countries; (4) the stock market development had positive effects on Taiwan's economic growth; (5) Taiwanese economy suffered less from the Asian financial crisis; (6) after foreign exchange deregulation, capital outflows had negative effects on all three economies, while the effect of capital inflows is negative but insignificant.

The rapid economic growth of the Asian countries has been a focus of interest for academics and policy makers for the last three decades. Among them, once Taiwan and Korea were colonies of Japan, and these three nations exhibited similarities in economic structure and policies. For example, all three economies had followed export oriented development strategy and had accumulated significant foreign reserves from trade surplus and experienced higher rates of domestic investment over the past 30 years. These three nations are also active members in the WTO.2 In addition, financial liberalization and financial reform have been undergone in these nations recently. This offers a superb sample to be examined the role of the financial sector development in economic growth processes. That is, it is interesting to investigate the relationship between financial development and the source of growth in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.

In the past two decades, Taiwan and Korea had experienced rapid economic growth, while Japan did not. This paper tries to investigate the sources of economic growth in these economies. Particularly, we focus on the role of financial development and structure (including banking and stock markets), monetary and financial policies, as well as the degree of international capital mobility in the economic growth processes. The major findings could be summarized as follows. (1) High investment had accelerated economic growth in Japan, while high investment to GDP ratio did not necessarily lead to better growth performance if investment did not have been allocated efficiently or if overinvestment exist, e.g. in Taiwan and Korea cases. (2) Real export growth rate had contributed to Taiwan and Korea. (3) The finance-aggregate had positive effects on the economy of Taiwan, but had negative effect on Korea and Japan. One possible reason may be due to the relatively sound financial system and prudentially financial regulation and supervision in Taiwan comparing with those in Korea and Japan. (4) The stock market development had positive effects on economic growth in Taiwan. (5) Taiwanese economy suffered less from the Asian financial crisis. (6) After foreign exchange deregulation, capital outflows had negative effects on all three economies, while the effect of capital inflows is negative but insignificant.