آیا توسعه مالی باعث رشد اقتصادی است؟ مفاهیمی برای سیاست در کره

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is examined, utilizing the superexogeneity methodology. We use annual data for Korea during 1971–2002, during which Korea has experienced both phenomenal economic growth and a variety of financial liberalization and reforms. In our tests for superexogeneity, we find that financial development control causes economic growth, but the reverse is not true. Our empirical results provide evidence in favor of the ‘finance causes growth’ view for the case of Korea while rejecting the ‘growth causes finance’ view. The policy implication is that Korea should give policy priority to financial reform rather than economic growth, because only a decisive and accelerated pace of financial restructuring can ensure a sustainable growth in the medium or long term.

The role of financial development in determining long-run economic growth has been studied since the 19th century (Schumpeter, 1939). However, modern empirical research on the relationship between finance and growth began with Goldsmith (1969). Research on the issue has flourished in recent years and now there is a large, growing body of empirical studies.1 While based on different statistical procedures and data sets, these studies produce remarkably consistent results in confirming the critical role of financial development in determining long-run economic growth. The observed relationship between the growth and financial development in these studies is robust and thus appears to be convincingly causal in providing empirical support to the ‘finance leads and growth follows’ view.

For the estimation of the conditional equation and the marginal equation, we use annual Korean data for the period of 1971–2002. This period includes the three most recent decades, during which Korea has experienced both phenomenal economic growth and a variety of financial liberalization and reforms.7 The data required for the estimation are the economic growth rate, financial development, real interest rate, gross fixed investment, government consumption, export, import, and real GDP. Financial development is measured by the ratio of the sum of loans and discounts of all financial institutions and trading value of securities (stocks and bonds) to nominal GDP.8 The real interest rate is calculated as the nominal yield of corporate bonds minus the current rate of inflation derived from the Korean CPI. All data are extracted from the Bank of Korea database at http://www.bok.or.kr.