اثر حواله ها بر فقر و توسعه مالی در کشورهای جنوب صحرای آفریقا

This paper assesses the effect of the steadily growing remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa. Though the region receives only a small portion of the total recorded remittances to developing countries, and the volume of aid flows to sub-Saharan Africa swamps remittances, this paper finds that remittances, which are a stable, private transfer, have a direct poverty-mitigating effect, and promote financial development. These findings hold even after factoring in the reverse causality between remittances, poverty, and financial development. The paper posits that formalizing such flows can serve as an effective access point for “unbanked” individuals, and households.

The flow of remittances into developing countries is attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume, and their effect on the receiving countries. In 2006, they totaled US$221 billion—twice the amount of official assistance developing countries received.1 Moreover, there is evidence that such flows are underreported. Remittances through informal channels could add at least 50% to the globally recorded flows (World Bank, 2006).2 Remittances to developing countries have increased on average by 16% in annual terms since 2000. Though at least some part of the growth is attributable to better reporting by recipient countries, it appears that over the last decade remittances have outpaced private capital flows, and official development assistance (World Bank, 2006).

This paper makes a first attempt at studying the impact of the steadily growing remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa. Though the region receives only a small portion of the total recorded remittances to developing countries, and the volume of aid flows to sub-Saharan Africa swamps remittances, the paper finds that remittances have a direct poverty-mitigating effect, and a positive impact on financial development. Migrant transfers help ease the immediate budget constraints of recipient households, and provide an opportunity for small savers to gain a foothold in the formal financial sector. However, the results from the paper should be interpreted with caution given the relatively uneven quality of data. Further work will be needed to refine the analysis as new, and improved data become available. Although remittances have a positive impact on poverty, and help foster financial development, they are not a panacea for all that ails countries sub-Saharan Africa; there is no substitute for a sustained, domestically engineered development effort.