توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی: همگرایی یا واگرایی؟

This study tests for convergence in financial development and economic growth by incorporating the interaction between the real and financial sectors into an otherwise traditional test for convergence. The results show strong evidence for conditional convergence. Middle- and high-income countries conditionally converge to parallel growth paths not only in per-capita GDP, but also in financial development. The mutually reinforcing relationship between financial development and economic growth is stronger in the early stage of economic development, and this relationship diminishes as sustained economic growth gets under way. As such, low-income countries with a relatively well-developed financial sector are more likely to catch up to their middle- and high-income counterparts, and those with a relatively under-developed financial sector are more likely to be trapped in poverty. This finding explains the observed “great divergence” between poor and rich countries. Another finding is that, while human capital is more important to growth in the early stage of economic development, economic freedom becomes more important in the later stage.

Comparisons of performance across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic growth. Are the low-income countries catching up to the high-income ones and, if so, how quickly and by what means? Economists and policy makers have expressed profound interest in the issue of whether best-performing countries can maintain their lead in the future. The standard neo-classical growth models (i.e., Solow, 1956, Ramsey, 1928 and Samuelson, 1958; and their descendants) imply that each country should converge on to its own steady-state growth path at a predictable rate.

This study tests for convergence in financial development and economic growth by incorporating the interaction between the real and financial sectors into an otherwise traditional test for convergence. The results show strong evidence for conditional convergence. For middle- and high-income countries, conditional convergence is found not only in economic growth, but also in financial development. The results also suggest that the mutually reinforcing relationship between financial development and economic growth is stronger in the early stage of economic development, and that this relationship diminishes as sustained economic growth gets under way. As such, low-income countries with a relatively well-developed financial sector are more likely to catch up to their middle- and high-income counterparts, and poor countries with a relatively under-developed financial sector are less likely to catch up. This finding provides a plausible explanation for the “great divergence” that has been observed in the rates of economic growth between rich and poor countries.