حواله ها، توسعه مالی و رشد

Despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows, the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied. This paper studies one of the links between remittances and growth, in particular how local financial sector development influences a country's capacity to take advantage of remittances. Using a newly-constructed dataset for remittances covering about 100 developing countries, we find that remittances boost growth in countries with less developed financial systems by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints. This finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of robustness tests, including threshold estimation. We also provide evidence that there could be an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth especially when the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population.

Remittances by international migrants to their countries of origin constitute the largest source of external finance for developing countries after foreign direct investment (FDI). Officially recorded remittance inflows amounted to $125 billion in 2004, exceeding total development aid by 50% (Fig. 1). Despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows, the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied. This contrasts sharply with the extensive research on the relationship between growth and other sources of foreign capital, such as foreign direct investment (FDI) and official assistance flows.1 Moreover, the conventional wisdom seems to be that, because remittances are used mostly for consumption, they have a minimal impact on long-term growth.

What is the macroeconomic impact of remittances? Is there evidence that remittances foster productive investment? How does financial development influence the growth effect of remittances? To shed some light on these important questions, in this paper we analyzed the relationship between remittances and growth and its interaction with the financial development in the recipient country. We used a newly constructed cross-country series for remittances covering a large number of developing countries over the period 1975–2002. We find that remittances have promoted growth in less financially developed countries by providing an alternative way to finance investment. This finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development using a SGMM approach, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of robustness tests, including threshold estimations. By becoming a substitute for inefficient or inexistent credit markets, remittances help alleviate credit constraints contributing to improve the allocation of capital and to boost economic growth. The findings suggest that there is an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth where the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population. We also analyzed the cyclical properties of remittances and concluded that they are predominantly profit-driven and mostly procyclical.