تاثیر توسعه مالی بر مصرف انرژی در اقتصادهای در حال ظهور

Financial development is often cited as a very important driver of economic growth in emerging economies and it is thus likely that financial development affects energy demand. This study uses generalized method of moments estimation techniques to examine the impact of financial development on energy consumption in a sample of emerging countries. Several different measures of financial development are examined. Using a panel data set on 22 emerging countries covering the period 1990–2006, the empirical results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption when financial development is measured using stock market variables like stock market capitalization to GDP, stock market value traded to GDP, and stock market turnover. The implications of these results for energy policy are discussed.

Understanding the determinants of energy consumption in emerging economies is an important research topic for several reasons. First, energy is used in the production of almost all goods and services and it is thus crucial to have a good understanding of the determinants of energy demand. Many emerging economies are growing very rapidly and as economic growth increases so too does the demand for energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) (2007, p. 73), between 2005 and 2030 world primary energy demand is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.8%. Developing economies will contribute to 74% of the increase in global energy demand. Moreover, just two countries, China and India will together account for 45% of the increase in global energy demand. Over the period 2005–2030, primary energy demand in China and India is expected to grow at average annual growth rates of 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively (IEA, 2007, p. 73). Understanding the determinants of energy demand is essential to gaining a better understanding how the demand for energy in emerging countries is going to change in the future. Energy demand modeling is also crucial to gaining a better understanding of how to manage global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) because energy-related GHG emissions make up the bulk of GHG emissions. According to the World Resources Institute, 61.4% of global GHG emissions come from the energy sector.1 While most of the world's GHG emissions have historically come from the developed countries, this is set to change as developing countries are expected to release more GHG emissions as their economies continue to grow.

The economic growth literature has emphasized the importance of financial development in helping emerging economies grow and prosper. The energy literature has for the most part, very little to say about the relationship between financial development and energy consumption. This paper has conducted what is believed to be the first published research into the relationship between financial development and energy demand in emerging economies, a topic that is likely to grow in importance as emerging economies continue to develop. The empirical methodology uses recently developed generalized method of moments techniques to control for possible endogeneity between energy demand, income and financial development. The resulting empirical models fit the data well and pass a number of diagnostic tests. The results from this paper show that increases in financial development, measured using stock market variables, like stock market capitalization to GDP, stock market value traded to GDP, and stock market turnover, increases the demand for energy in emerging economies. These results are important for several reasons.