توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی: شواهد تازه از داده های پانل

This study provides evidence on the role of financial development in accounting for economic growth in low- and middle-income countries classified by geographic regions. To document the relationship between financial development and economic growth, we estimate both panel regressions and variance decompositions of annual GDP per capita growth rates to examine what proxy measures of financial development are most important in accounting for economic growth over time and how much they contribute to explaining economic growth across geographic regions and income groups. We find a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth in developing countries. Moreover, short-term multivariate analysis provides mixed results: a two-way causality relationship between finance and growth for most regions and one-way causality from growth to finance for the two poorest regions. Furthermore, other variables from the real sector such as trade and government expenditure play an important role in explaining economic growth. Therefore, it seems that a well-functioning financial system is a necessary but not sufficient condition to reach steady economic growth in developing countries.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth has received a great deal of attention in recent decades. However, there are conflicting views concerning the role that the financial system plays in economic growth. For example, while Levine (1997) believes that financial intermediaries enhance economic efficiency, and ultimately growth, by helping allocate capital to its best uses, Lucas (1988) asserts that the role of the financial sector in economic growth is “over-stressed.” Notwithstanding the controversy, modern theoretical literature on the finance–growth nexus combines the endogenous growth theory and microeconomics of financial systems (Grossman and Helpman, 1991, Khan, 2001, Lucas, 1988, Pagano, 1993, Rebelo, 1991 and Romer, 1986; among others).

We examined panel regressions with cross-sectional countries and time-series proxy measures to study linkages between financial development and economic growth in low, middle and high-income countries as classified by the World Bank. We also performed various multivariate time-series models in the frame of VAR analysis, forecast error variance decompositions, impulse response functions, and Granger causality tests to document the direction and relationship between finance and growth in these countries with the objective of documenting the progress in financial liberalization and exploring some policy implications. Consistent with Bekaert et al. (2005) and Barro (1997), among others, we found that a low initial GDP per capita level is associated with a higher growth rate, after controlling for financial and real sector variables. Furthermore, in agreement with King and Levine (1993a), and Levine et al. (2000), among others, we found strong long-run linkages between financial development and economic growth. Specifically, as predicted in neo-classical models (Pagano, 1993), domestic gross savings is positively related to growth. We also found that domestic credit to the private sector is positively related to growth in East Asia & Pacific, and Latin America & Caribbean, but is negatively related to growth in high-income countries.