تله های فقر، قاعده رشد پول و مرحله توسعه مالی

This paper investigates how monetary policy influences the emergence of local indeterminacy, local bifurcations, and multiple steady states, depending upon the degree of the commitment parameter that defines financial market imperfection, using Diamond's overlapping generations model with credit market frictions. The analytical results will show that poverty traps happen as an inevitable outcome under a wider range of money growth rates, because financial markets are less developed. Put differently, we derive analytically the positive link between financial development and per capita income.

It is well known that there are sharply differing opinions regarding the importance of the development of financial markets to economic performance. For example, Schumpeter (1912) argued that financial markets are essential for economic development. Similarly, Hicks (1969) declared that it was a critical and inextricable part of industrialization in England. In contrast, Robinson (1952) contended that financial development responds passively to economic growth. Lucas (1988) also asserted that the role of financial factors in economic development should not be overstressed. However, a growing body of empirical work demonstrates a strong positive link between the functioning of financial markets and long-run economic growth. Empirical evidence makes it difficult to conclude that the financial system is inconsequential to the process of economic growth (see King and Levine, 1993 and Levine, 1993).

Using Diamond's overlapping generations model with credit market frictions, this paper explores how monetary policy and the degree of financial development influence the occurrence of local indeterminacy, local bifurcations, multiple steady states and, particularly, poverty traps. The relationship between the degree of financial development and the occurrence of poverty traps can be described as follows. Suppose that the rate of monetary growth is lower than some critical value. Then, the middle- and high-capital-stock steady states disappear and only the low-capital-stock steady state exists. The lower the degree of financial development, the higher the critical rate of monetary growth. By contrast, a multiplicity of steady states can be verified for moderately high rates of monetary growth. However, with financial development sufficiently low, the high-capital-stock steady state disappears and the middle-capital-stock steady state loses its stability for a wider interval of money growth rates.