تاثیر توسعه مالی و تجارت بر رشد اقتصادی بولیوی

The relationship of economic growth with financial development and trade openness is analyzed with annual time-series data for Bolivia during the 1940–2010 period. The analysis is an advance over previous work in several ways. First, the hypothesis of a long-run relationship between these variables is tested using bivariate cointegrated systems and employing the methodology of cointegration analysis. Second, causality tests utilizing standard Granger regressions and ECM models are carried out to determine the direction of causality between indicators of economic growth and financial development, and economic growth and trade openness. Lastly, the study comprises a period of seventy years, a first for a study of this kind on Bolivia. The empirical results demonstrate that there is indeed a long-run equilibrium relationship, and that unidirectional Granger causality runs from the indicators of financial development and trade openness to economic growth.

The existence of correlation between financial development and economic growth has been documented in a number of empirical studies. Some have found a positive association between these variables while others have discovered that financial development may in some cases hamper economic growth. Likewise, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth has been thoroughly analyzed, and the findings in most papers support the notion that greater openness to trade generates positive growth effects.

This study analyzes the impact of trade openness and financial development on the economic growth of Bolivia for the period 1940-2010. The analysis is an advance over previous studies in several respects. First, the hypothesis of a long-run relationship between indicators of economic growth and financial development, and economic growth and trade openness, is tested using bivariate cointegrated systems and employing the methodology of cointegration analysis suggested by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990). Second, the issue of causality between the variables of interest is analyzed with standard Granger regressions and with error-correction models. Lastly, this paper analyzes a period of seventy years, the longest for a study of this kind on Bolivia. The results show that there is indeed a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth, financial development and trade openness indicators. Further, unidirectional Granger causality is found running from financial development and trade openness indicators to economic growth. These results are believed to be quite reliable due to the use of recently developed statistical methods for choosing the lag structure, the use of error-correction models to determine causality, and the utilization of a large dataset