ساختار مالی شرکت ها و ثبات مالی

Drawing on a unique dataset of flow-of funds and balance sheet data, this paper analyzes the impact of financial crises on aggregate corporate financing and expenditure in a range of countries. Investment and inventory contractions are the main contributors to lower GDP growth after crises, with a much greater effect in emerging market countries. The debt–equity ratio is correlated with investment and inventory declines following crises. Econometric analysis suggests that financial crises have a greater impact on expenditure and the financing of corporate sectors in emerging markets than in industrial countries. Industrial countries appear to benefit from a pick-up in bond issuance in the wake of banking crises. Although companies in emerging market countries hold more precautionary liquidity, this is evidently not sufficient to prevent a greater amplitude of response of expenditure to shocks.

This paper examines how corporate financial structure shapes the impact of a financial crisis on the real sector via its effects on flows of funds and on corporate real expenditures. It is one of the first papers to utilize extensive cross-country flow and balance sheet data and also to examine subcomponents of GDP in the wake of banking and currency crises rather than purely focusing on aggregate GDP. The analysis of this paper compares and contrasts corporate financing and expenditure patterns during periods of financial crisis in OECD and emerging market (EME) countries. The implications of corporate financial structure for financial fragility are measured here empirically by examining shifts in the size and composition of financial flows and expenditures by the corporate sector during a crisis, controlling for normal shifts in financing or expenditures that take place over the cycle. The analysis suggests that investment and inventory contractions are the main contributors to lower GDP growth after crises and the effect is much greater in emerging market countries. There is a marked correlation of the debt–equity ratio to investment and inventory declines following crises. Financial crises have a greater and more consistently negative impact on corporate sectors in emerging markets than in industrial countries, although even in the latter the impact is not negligible. Industrial countries benefit from the existence of multiple channels of intermediation in that bond issuance is shown to pick up in the wake of banking crises. The paper is structured as follows: Section 1 comprises a review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature and suggests some testable hypotheses drawn from that literature; Section 2 outlines the data, and illustrates broad corporate financing patterns; 3 and 4 provide empirical analysis of corporate expenditures and financial flows during financial turbulence; and Section 5 concludes. Inter alia it is suggested that the implications of financial structure for the impact of a crisis on the corporate sector, and thereby real output, strengthen the case for financial sector reforms and surveillance of the financial sector by governments and international financial institutions.

This paper has provided evidence on the impact of financial crises on corporate financing and expenditure in a range of countries, both advanced and emerging markets. We find that the average level of corporate financing differs markedly between country groups, with emerging market corporate sectors being more dependent on external finance, and also more dependent on banks. Further, the corporate sectors in emerging markets have higher debt–equity ratios but also smaller corporate liabilities (including equity) than in industrial countries, as well as higher liquidity ratios. Investment and inventory contractions are the main contributors to post-crisis GDP contractions and these contractions are correlated with corporate financial structure. There is a marked correlation of the debt–equity ratio to investment and inventory declines following crises. Changes in corporate financial flows after crises are dominated by bank lending. Post-crisis changes in corporate financial flows are more severe for banking crises compared to currency crises. Econometric analysis suggests that financial crises have a greater and more consistently negative impact on corporate sectors in emerging markets than in industrial countries, although even in the latter the impact is not negligible. Industrial countries benefit from the existence of multiple channels of intermediation, in that bond issuance is shown to pick up in the wake of banking crises. We believe these results strengthen the case for more intense surveillance of the corporate sector by national governments and international financial institutions. A closer focus on the corporate sector’s performance could enhance the assessment of overall economic vulnerability to crisis. Specifically, financial stability indicators should include corporate sector balance sheet and flow indicators as a priority. In order for this to be operational there is a need to encourage countries to gather and report flow of funds and sectoral balance sheet data. In addition, further analysis of the components of expenditure in the wake of crises would help improve understanding of the crisis channels between the corporate sector and the rest of the economy. Further research could seek inter alia to probe the separate role of foreign currency borrowing. It will also be useful to undertake complementary research with micro corporate data and data for the household sector. Finally, governments should think seriously about reshaping corporate incentives to enhance financial stability (Stone, 2001). The links between corporate financial structure and post-crisis contractions in GDP raise an important externality that only now is receiving much attention. The externality is the absence of market punishment of corporate managers who make financing decisions that help propagate systemic financial crises. The social costs of crises could be internalized for corporate managers through policies that improve corporate governance and establish proper legal, regulatory and judicial arrangements. Hopefully, these policy responses will reduce the economic and social costs of modern financial crises.