آیا مالیات بر ارزش افزوده ، ابزار تثبیت کننده اقتصاد کلان مفیدی است ؟

The value added tax (VAT) has been proposed as a macroeconomic stabilization instrument. This paper considers some practical implications of a variable VAT. It then develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess its usefulness as a stabilization instrument. A variable rate VAT would no longer be less distortionary than other taxes. It would distort between current and future consumption, i.e. savings and investment decisions, and hence raise the economic costs of taxation. Moreover, a variable VAT would be less effective in dampening business cycles than the conventional stabilization tool, an interest rate. This is because of the additional adverse supply effects. A change in the interest rate affects this period's savings and investment decisions, whereas a variable VAT rate would influence savings and investment decisions over time. A variable VAT rate is therefore unlikely to be a useful stabilization instrument.

The 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent worldwide economic recession led to a recourse by governments to fiscal policy as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization (e.g. Feldstein, 2009). Countries implemented various stimulative fiscal measures. These included increases in public consumption and infrastructure investment, and measures to boost household disposable income through cutting income taxes and increasing benefits and subsidies, as well as tax reductions for businesses. Moreover, the United Kingdom temporarily reduced its value added tax (VAT) to stimulate consumer spending. The rate reduction took effect on 1 December 2008 and temporarily lowered the VAT rate from 17.5% to 15% until 31 December 2009. Further temporary VAT rate cuts have been suggested by the International Monetary Fund (2012) as economic growth has remained sluggish in the United Kingdom and worldwide. A more active countercyclical use of the value added tax has also been proposed in New Zealand. For example, the New Zealand central bank suggested that “the (VAT) rate could be raised during periods of intense pressures on resources and lowered when inflationary pressures were very weak” (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2007).1 The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic effects of a variable value added tax and its usefulness as a stabilization instrument. The paper considers some practical implications of a variable VAT. It then develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess its effectiveness in reducing business cycle fluctuations. The framework of analysis is a small open economy that operates under a flexible exchange rate with imperfect competition and sticky prices. The model is calibrated for New Zealand, a small open economy with a comprehensive and broad base value added tax. The paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 briefly discusses New Zealand's value added tax and the features that make a VAT less distortionary than other taxes. It then considers some practical implications of a variable VAT rate. Section 3 derives the theoretical model and discusses the economic costs of a variable VAT rate. The effectiveness of a variable VAT as a stabilization tool compared to an interest rate is evaluated in Section 4 and the last section summarizes and concludes.

This paper examined the use of the value added tax as a macroeconomic stabilization tool. It first discussed some practical implications that would arise with the implementation of a variable VAT. It then developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess its usefulness as a stabilization instrument. The value added tax is considered less distortionary than other taxes. This is because a constant rate VAT does not distort between current and future consumption, i.e. savings and investment decisions. A variable rate VAT would no longer be less distortionary than other taxes. It would affect savings and investment decisions and hence raise the economic costs of taxation. A variable VAT rate system would be more complex and difficult to manage than a constant rate system. It would increase tax administration and business compliance costs and may lead to pressures for differential rates and exemptions. A variable VAT rate would provide incentives for tax planning and new avenues for fraud and any shortfall in VAT collection would need to be met with higher tax rates. This would add further to the economic costs of taxation. Moreover, a variable VAT rate would be a less effective stabilization tool than the conventional instrument, which is an interest rate. It would lead to larger adjustments in the policy instrument and fluctuations in the real economy and inflation. This is because a variable VAT rate would have additional adverse supply effects. A change in the interest rate affects this period's savings and investment decisions, whereas a variable VAT rate would influence savings and investment decisions over time. The value added tax is therefore unlikely to be a useful stabilization instrument.