مشتاق برای رسیدگی: سود و زیان تحریک استفاده از سوخت های زیستی در بخش گرمایش سوئد

This paper evaluates the impact of changes in current Swedish energy taxation by analyzing a panel of approximately 150 district heating plants in Sweden. We estimate plant-specific production functions and derive the economic repercussions of changing the energy tax system. We also estimate the resulting changes of emissions of Sulfur, NOx, particulates and CO2. Our results raise the issue of whether or not the Swedish tax system needs to be complemented with additional environmental taxes, covering, say, emissions of particulates. Because the geographical variation of damages is likely to be substantial, an overall re-assessment of current regulatory schemes seems preferable.

The Swedish government introduced a program in 1997 for stimulating a large-scale increase of the use of biofuels.1 The program includes subsidies to households and large-scale combustion plants, and comes amidst an overhaul of the whole energy taxation system. In the new energy taxation system, the objective is to harmonize energy taxes between the industrial and the heating sector. In practice, this entails a reduction of the general energy tax and the CO2 tax for the heating sector. Given the current energy taxation system, the overhaul will increase the relative price of biofuels used in heating plants. This paper sheds empirical light on this issue, by estimating the impact on district heating plants of a comprehensive change in energy taxation. Using a detailed panel-data set covering the period 1989–1996, we estimate the technology for each heating plant and simulate the choice of fuel-mix for several policy packages. In addition, we estimate environmental impacts, by using detailed data on plant technologies. The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides some details about the current energy taxation system and proposals to re-structure it. Section 3 presents a theoretical model of a cost-minimizing power plant. Section 4 describes the econometric specification of the model; estimation results are presented in Section 5. Simulations of the different policy packages are given in Section 6. Section 7 displays the projected emission changes. Section 8 offers concluding remarks.

The purpose of this study is to analyze possible impacts on the Swedish heating sector and the associated changes of emissions, due to a reformation of the Swedish energy tax system. We analyze reductions of the CO2 tax combined with subsidies to promote biofuels. The policy packages we have simulated imply changes in the fuel-mix. We note that the emissions, and hence the distribution of externality costs, are likely to be uneven, emission increases will be concentrated to large cities. Because NOx and VOC emissions are positively correlated and of particular interest in large cities, our results suggest that current regulations need to be scrutinized, if the current policy of stimulating biofuels is continued. Our results also raise the issue of whether or not the Swedish tax system needs to be complemented with additional environmental taxes, covering, say, emissions of particulates. If we assume away the potential suboptimality of taxing only one of many sectors that are associated with “untaxed externalities”, it would seem reasonable to buttress the feasibility of introducing new environmental taxes in the system. However, because the geographical variation of damages is likely to be substantial, an overall assessment of current regulatory schemes seems preferable. The current system of using both taxes and regulations needs to be re-structured, in particular, in the case of global environmental problems. It is inefficient to use both a carbon dioxide tax and a regulatory cap on carbon dioxide emissions. It makes sense, however, to tax some locally important emissions, at the same time keeping the regulatory safeguard. Finally, we note that the model employed gives a rather simplified picture of the Swedish heating industry. It assumes that the markets for the various fuels work more or less perfectly, implying that the plants can buy whatever quantities they want at the ruling price. It is “well-known” that many heating plants are best described as local monopolies in the market for forest fuels, which may give rise price repercussions not accounted for in this study. Furthermore, it is assumed that the implied substitutions are technically feasible. This assumption is probably an oversimplification, especially under non-marginal tax reforms.