New quantitative model of evaluating the economic risk of a real estate project has been proposed in this article and the weight of each risk factor influencing the outcome of a real estate project in the model has been objectively calculated by using AHP. On the basis of simulation, the quantified evaluation and analysis of economic risk of example has been done; the sensitivity analysis of the influence of one factor or more factors combined on the real estate project has been made by using new model proposed in this article.
Real estate development has been regarded as a kind of economic issue of high investment, high profit, and high risk.The variables such as investment, profit, and construction
cost and construction duration are affected by all kinds of risk factors related to real estate development during the development and management process of a real estate project.The change of every risk factor is likely to bring about great influence on investment, profit, construction cost, and construction duration of real estate project. Thus, it is impossible
to gain a higher return from the real estate investment if the risks during the process of the real estate development are neglected and a comprehensive and correct analysis of
them not made. There are many methods or models to evaluate and analyze the economic risk of real estate project, such as NPV, IRR, and multi-objective decision-making method
etc. and the economic risk of a real estate project can be dynamically evaluated by using some methods among them based on simulation[1−8]. However, on the one hand, these
methods can only consider all risk factors’ comprehensive influence on the expected outcome of real estate investment (such as NPV), but cannot consider one risk factor’s or more
combined risk factors’ influence on the expected outcome of a real estate project, which the investor cares for. On the other hand, it is an important step for getting the scientific
evaluation results to reasonably determine the weight of each risk factor influencing the economic return of a real estate investment, to ensure the consistency of all risk factors,
and to reduce the subjective[9]. Therefore, based on simulation,a new quantified model of evaluating and analyzing the economic risk of a real estate project has been proposed
in this article after the risk factors of a real estate project have been identified, and the weight of each risk factor in the model has been calculated by using AHP. This model
can not only consider the dynamic influence of one factor or more combined factors on the outcome which developers are concerned about, such as real estate investment profit(such as NPV), construction cost and construction duration etc, but also analyze the dynamic, quantitative influence of these factors on the project investment and deals with the
risk sensitivity analysis.
Each uncertain random factors influencing real estate investment can be well described and revealed by the risk simulation, whose process can better and objectively mimic the economical process of the real estate project. The quantitative analysis and evaluation model of economic risk in a real estate project has been built in this article. On the one hand, the three parameters CI, CO, and NPV are just treated as a risk variable respectively. However, if CI and CO can be broken up, the economical risk variable can be analysed more. On the other hand, the model makes the calculation of some variables by two points (maximum, minimum), which is more practical than by three points. Moreover, objective identification of the weight of each risk factor in the model made by using AHP makes the evaluation and analysis moreobjective and scientific in this article. Finally, based on simulation,the quantified analysis of economic risk of a real estate project has been done. The sensitivity analysis with one factor or more factors combined influencing the real estate project has been made. The comprehensive utilization of AHP and the model proposed in the article, together with the effective analysis of simulation results, can provide the investor of the real estate project with more accurate, more comprehensive, more scientific, and more quantified information for decision on the real estate project. The method proposed in this article can make the objective, dynamic, and quantitative analysis of the economic risk in the real estate project to lower or avoid investment risk.
