مدل ارزیابی ریسک بر اساس تنظیم فازی برای پروژه های دارایی واقعی

With the rapid development of residential real estate market, risk evaluation has been an important task in the process of project. This paper describes a risk evaluation method for residential real estate projects based on fuzzy set theory which uses linguistic variables and respective fuzzy numbers to evaluate the factors. The primary weights of factors and evaluation of alternatives are determined by applying linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. The notion of Shapley value is used to determine the global value of each factor in accomplishing the overall objective of the risk evaluation process, so the primary weights are revised, thus the importance of factors can be reflected more precisely. A major advantage of the method is that it allows experts and engineers to express their opinions on project risk evaluation in linguistic variables rather than crisp values. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the application of the method in risk evaluation. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional risk evaluation method. The research demonstrates that the method is objective and accurate, and is of an application value in the risk evaluation for residential real estate project.

The real estate industry has been a support industry in the national economy with the rapid development of housing market since the welfare housing allocation system has been canceled in China. The real estate is an industry with high cost, high profit and high risk, with more and more enterprises paying attention to the risk evaluation. Risk evaluation is concerned with evaluating the probability and impact of individual risk; the risk evaluation methods which are widely used include expert grade method, Monte Carlo method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)1 and 2. Despite the successful application of above risk evaluation methods, many problems remain: expert grade method is mainly based on the subjective judgments by the experts and the conclusions are approximate; Monte Carlo method is difficult to identify the correlations among risk factors, and is based on the model selection, thus the model selection has a deep influence on the precision of calculation; meanwhile there is a great calculation amounts and usually the computer is needed to finish the calculation. The AHP has some issues in the application: the imposed inconsistency due to the restriction of pairwise comparisons to a 1-to-9 scale and to the problematic correspondence between the verbal and the numeric scales[3]; the variation in the verbal expressions from one person to another, as well as their dependence on the type of elements involved in the comparison[4]. The application of the methods is limited.

In an actual risk evaluation, it is difficult to judge the weight of each risk factor. So the authors present risk evaluation with linguistic variables. The linguistic variables are transferred to fuzzy numbers, and the primary weights are obtained by defuzzification and then revised by the calculation of Shapley value. The result shows that the model can be used in the risk evaluation of residential project development. The research indicates that the method proposed in this paper has its objectivity and stability, and is of applicable value in the risk evaluation for residential real estate projects.