ارزیابی گزینه ای فازی واقعی از پروژه دارایی واقعی بر اساس تحلیل خطرپذیری

The initial investment decision-making of the real estate project is very important. It requires making the right assessment of engineering project risk, then judging the project potential value which is affected by the risk factors. Within this context, fuzzy mathematics is used to assess the levels of income risk and cost risk in the real estate investment, and then adjust the relevant parameters of fuzzy real option based on the above risk assessment of real estate project, which will improve the rationality and validity of the engineering potential value evaluation. Finally, this paper illustrates the assessment model with an example of a real estate investment project in Hangzhou.

In the whole course of real estate investment and development, it comes along with long construction period, large capital flows, long payback period, many uncertainties, restriction and influence by policy, which determine the high risk in real estate investment. So, choosing the right investment project is far more important than managing. To make the correct choice, a reasonable assessment and measurement of the project risk and value is of great importance at the early stage in real estate investment. Establishing a set of scientific and effective assessment methods to identify and analyze the project risk factors to improve the judgment of the potential value, which plays an important role in ensuring the success of real estate investment.

The common evaluation methods of real estate investment usually just calculate and estimate the risk factors, and fail to analyze the influence on the potential value of engineering development project, while the real option method provides a better tool to solve the problem. However, in the Black-Scholes pricing model, there exist quite numbers of uncertainties when determining the two parameters of income and cost in real estate investment because there are so many risks that will effect them. This paper combines the fuzzy risk assessment of investment income and cost with the calculation of relevant parameters in fuzzy real option pricing model, through quantitative analysis, making the expected values of real estate project’s income and cost more reasonable and realistic and improving the reliability of the potential value evaluation. At the same time, combined with the income and cost risks levels rating, we can judge the feasibility of the project synthetically. The paper analyzes an example of a real estate investment project in Hangzhou to apply to this evaluation method. This method can provide a theoretical reference for real estate investment decision-making.