استراتژی سرمایه گذاری برای تاسیسات ذخیره سازی گاز زیرزمینی بر اساس مدل انتخابی واقعی با توجه به اصلاح بازار گاز در چین

Natural gas is expected to play a much more important role in China's energy supply, however, the lack of underground gas storage facilities becomes a serious barrier for its market penetration. Therefore, gas market reform is expected to be incentive for developing gas storage facilities. In the present study, a real option model was proposed to analyse the optimal investment strategy (investment timing and value) for underground gas storage facilities with/without the consideration of gas market reform. Uncertainties in gas market, government incentives and technological improvements were considered. The obtained results showed that it was not optimal for immediate investment in underground gas storage in China, and that to implement gas market reform would greatly contribute to gas storage construction. With the consideration of gas market reform, the investment of underground gas storage would be executed at 2026 with an investment value of 0.33 RMB/m3 if there were no government incentive, while to invest in 2030 would be the best decision without the consideration of gas market reform, and the investment value is only 0.05 RMB/m3. Through a sensitivity analysis, the effects of changes in parameters related to gas market, government incentives and technological improvements on the investment strategy were investigated. The conclusions can provide useful information for gas storage enterprise decision-makers on whether and when to invest underground gas storage facilities in China considering uncertainties.