سرمایه گذاری سهام خصوصی فراتر از مدار زمین: آیا اکتشافات فضایی می تواند مرز جدیدی برای سرمایه گذاری های خصوصی باشد؟

The year 2004 can be considered an important milestone for space activities. First, on January 14, 2004 President Bush announced a new vision for human and robotic space exploration named “A Renewed Spirit of Discovery”. This new space exploration policy called for “a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond” and seeks also to “promote international and commercial participation in space exploration to further US scientific, security, and economic interests”. Secondly, the satellite industry has experienced a trend of private investment fund acquisitions. Five of six major fixed and mobile satellite service providers in the world have been partly or entirely sold to conventional financial investors. These transactions have taken place despite the background noise of overcapacity, stagnant growth and declining operating margins satellite services sector. Over the last 18 months, we have seen a total of approximately US $12B dollars in private equity transactions in the satellite sector. Finally, the Ansari X prize has been won opening the possibility of the personal spaceflight revolution. This paper seeks to provide some insights into the nature, timing and a rationale for these investments in the space sector. Then, an attempt is made to analyze the potential that space exploration might present for traditional financial investors.

The recent purchases by private equity firms of several large commercial satellite operators has been highly documented, but these investments focus primarily on activities in Earth orbits. However, is there a potential for private investment beyond these orbits? The private equity industry is often cited as an initial source of funds for many visionary business and scientific projects. What is really new and interesting, is the enthusiasm that new entrepreneurs who made significant fortunes during the dotcom era (e.g.Elon Musk: Space X, Jeff Bezos: Blue Origin, Paul Allen: SpaceShipOne etc.) or other wealthy individuals (e.g.Robert Bigelow) have to invest in the space sector. Is this an overall trend or just some isolated cases? Passion is not everything for these experienced businessmen; they also seek a return on their investment. President Bush's “Vision for US Space Exploration” plans to rely extensively on the private sector, therefore, should open some new investment opportunities in this multi-decades plan.

US federal government spending on commercial satellite communications and imagery is expected to increase from an estimated $927 million in 2003 to $1.7 billion annually in 2008, according to a 2004 report by Northern Sky Research in Orlando, Florida (Emery). Satellite communications providers stand to reap substantial benefits from the realization of these expectations. The digitization of information and media will have even greater ramifications on the space and satellite industry. The purchases of Intelsat, PanamSat, Inmarsat, Eutelsat and New Skies showed that the current slump in the industry has created an attractive landscape for pure financiers whose motives are rooted in healthy investment rates of return. These buyers are savvy investors who live by buying underperforming businesses and reselling at a significantly higher price. Private equity firms have their own investors to whom they have a fiduciary obligation to take reasonable risks with the investments they choose to make. Newfound enthusiasm for space exploration and the engagement of space agencies around the world has brought this area of space into focus. The US presidential vision to pursue exploration of the Moon, Mars seeks to renew the space community's spirit for activities beyond LEO. But it will take time and tens of billions of dollars to make this vision a reality. The governments seem to realize that the private sector can play a meaningful role in the process. Wealthy individual space entrepreneurs are a bit more skeptical about government's ability to deliver. A short list of well-known and wealthy actors in space, represent roughly $41 Billion dollars of net worth. The recent multiplication of deep-pocketed space enthusiasts who have put their own money into space ventures such as Paul Allen, Elon Musk (Space X), Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin) and Robert Bigelow (Bigelow Aerospace) to name a few, might open a new era in space financing activities, where these investors will try to change the traditional investmentparadigm in space. There is no question that investment money is available for near earth orbit satellite businesses. These businesses have reliable paying customers, an absolute requirement for any investor to put cash into a growing business. They have measurable backlogs for future revenues and maintain a competitive market position. Additionally, the regulatory and cost barriers to entry are significantly high. Those characteristics translate to a way for investors to make money. As a result, satellite businesses will continue to attract a bevy of buyers and sellers with significant cash in hand. The question remains whether space exploration businesses or businesses derived from space exploration activities can portray the same characteristics as successful low-Earth-orbit ventures? If yes, such businesses will have a sophisticated source of funds available to them. However, if the answer no, space exploration endeavors will have a hard time escaping their perception as irrational business opportunities. In the short and near term, satellite telecommunications will continue to dominate space investment dollars. A window of opportunity is open to space exploration in the long-term but only if the activities are enveloped in rational business plans that can return money to potential investors. Entrepreneurs will necessarily have to speak the language of space and that of high risk finance.