تولید برق فتوولتائیک در برزیل: تجزیه و تحلیل سودآوری اقتصادی تصادفی برای سیستم های کوچک با توجه به اندازه گیری های خالص و انگیزه های مالیاتی

Currently, in addition to the search for sustainable development, there is increased pressure for a change in consumption and production of energy patterns in Brazil. In this scenario, net metering is an important mechanism fostering dissemination of small photovoltaic (PV) solar systems. As complementary support to net metering, a tax exemption is currently being offered in some Brazilian states. Thus, the objective of the present study is to analyze the impact of tax exemption on the circulation of goods and services, and the returns and risks of the PV microgeneration project in four cities located in different regions of Brazil: Belém, Petrolina, Uberaba and Uruguaiana. The analysis is performed using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), wherein uncertainties related to the financial and environmental variables are considered. The results of the stochastic economic viability analysis allowed us to conclude that the exemption of tax on circulation of goods and services (ICMS) is fundamental to make PV microgeneration viable in Brazil. In the cities analyzed, PV microgeneration presented economic unfeasibility to the investor when the ICMS is charged. When considering the ICMS exemption policy, the cities of Petrolina and Belém obtained high probabilities of viability. In relation to the risk analysis, PV microgeneration obtained the best results in Petrolina, both in terms of the condition of collection and exemption of ICMS. There is high potential for harness solar throughout the Brazilian territory. However, due to the current evolution stage and the productive chain of the Brazilian PV industry, high costs limit the expansion of this clean energy generation technology. The findings of this study could assist policymakers in evaluating this incentive program, highlighting that this tax exemption directly meets one of the objectives for which the ICMS was created which is to encourage the development of productive sectors, such as PV industry.