رابطه علی بین سیاست سرمایه گذاری ساخت و ساز و رشد اقتصادی در ترکیه

The construction industry in countries experiencing severe economic crisis has vital importance to get out of stagnation because of its direct relations with 200 different sectors. In this study, the relationship between the construction growth data (infrastructure, building and residential (public), building and residential (private) investment) and gross domestic product (GDP) is examined for Turkey. To this end, Engle–Granger cointegration, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality tests were applied in order to determine the aforementioned relation. It has been found that the infrastructure and building–residential investments have direct relations with the GDP and have causality effects.

The construction sector is regarded as a significant factor influencing economic policies in developing countries like Turkey. The sector has backward and forward linkages with other sectors. Countries utilize their construction sectors as regulation lever. That is, they tend to reduce the number of construction projects and cut off funds fostering this sector when their economies enter a very rapid growth pace; and revitalize the construction sector when their economies suffer from demand shortage and when unemployment rate increases. These frequent fluctuations in demand level are the most significant bottleneck of the sector. Construction sector, made up of building and residential activities, has undertaken a key role in transition from economic stagnation to growth by means of the inputs it utilizes and employment it creates. According to Intes [1], construction sector acts as a key and driving sector which has established relation with more than 200 sub-industries or sub-sectors. In an analysis of the construction sector's production value (inputs supplied from other sectors and value added created), the share of inputs supplied from other sectors is calculated to be 59% and that of the value added is 41% in its production value. According to an input–output analysis conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute, residential construction receives input from a total of 24 fundamental sectors, namely from 3 main production, 15 manufacturing and 6 service sectors. The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: high income (developed economies), middle income and lower income (developing). Turkey is classified as a developing country by [2] and [3]. The construction sector is regarded as a significant factor influencing economic policies in developing countries like Turkey. The present study analyzes the relations among construction growth items (infrastructure, building and residential (public), building and residential (private) investment) and gross domestic product (GDP) within the 1987–2008 period in Turkey. The study differs from other studies in literature by introducing categorization into three different selection groups, such as infrastructure, public and private investment. Most studies in the literature study only one of these groups. Moreover, Ofori [4] stated that private sector involvement in the provision of infrastructure and other major construction projects require the attention of researchers on construction in developing countries.

In this study, the relationship between the construction growth data (infrastructure, building and residential (public), building and residential (private) investment) and gross domestic product (GDP) is examined for Turkey. To this end, series' stationary structures were examined via ADF unit root test: Furthermore, cointegration and error terms between construction investment and GDP were analyzed. There is a clear cointegration between infrastructure and BRPU investments. No relation was detected in BRPR variable with GDP. It has been concluded that the long term relation in infrastructure investments are not affected by economic shocks in the short run; however BRPU investments are affected by short term shocks. In studies analyzing general construction investments, it has been argued that a short term relationship is a causality relationship from GDP to construction investments. In studies addressing the classification of construction investments, on the other hand, a bi-directional causality relationship has been determined between public construction investment and GDP. Construction sector is a significant argument catalyzing governments' economic policies. In times of demand shortages in economy, governments yield GDP by increasing construction investments and vitalizing the sector. On the other hand, they tend to cut off funds bolstering construction investments in times of rapid growth rate. This study is similar to other studies carried out in this field and strengthens the thesis that public investments in developing countries exert long term effects on GDP.