مزیت نسبی، تخصصی شدن منطقه ای و توزیع درآمد: بررسی مورد چشم انداز اتریش

Realization of comparative advantage (David Ricardo) raises issues of income distribution that emerge when specialization gains are achieved. While the Stolper-Samuelson theorem ‘predicts’ that because of trade liberalization in ‘rich countries’ like Austria or Germany wages may fall and real incomes of capital owners might increase, some doubts are raised whether continuous cuts in relative wages – as a response to specialization gains achieved in the process of trade liberalization – are an adequate policy response. The case of Austria illustrates the related issues. This case it not representative for the EU at large, a similar result can be expected for a few other EU countries, e.g. Germany. Other EU member states pursue different policies.

The Austrian economy is perceived as a major winner of ‘Eastern enlargement’ of the European Union, but Austrians’ perception of the usefulness of EU membership is the second lowest within the European Union: 36% perceive membership as good, 37% as neither good nor bad, and 23% as bad. Only in the UK less people find EU membership as useful: 34% (Eurobarometer, 2006, p. 19). Similarly, only 31% of Austrians are in favor of further EU enlargement, and again there is only one country where even less people are in favor, 30% in Germany (Eurobarometer, 2006, p. 50). How come that a large part of the population of a country, which in 1994 had a 66% vote in favor of accession and which is perceived as a major winner of trade liberalization in course of EU enlargement, finds EU membership to be of limited usefulness and is rather skeptic about the possible effects of further enlargement? To answer this question the paper proceeds as follows. After this introduction the main results from various studies on Austria’s EU accession and on EU enlargement are summarized. Next, the effects of Austria’s EU membership on incomes of workers are described. Then, after a brief reference to standard theory (Ricardo and Stolper-Samuelson) I show a simple numerical example, which helps to understand the conflicting views on undoubtedly positive effects of trade specialization according to Ricardo’s ‘Doctrine of Comparative Costs’. Finally, I try to draw conclusions about the risks, which emerge from the chosen path of incomes’ policy.