عوامل مالی در سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی: تجزیه و تحلیل پویا از داده های بین المللی

In contrast to existing empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) studies that examine the static effects of strategic or real economic variables, this paper focuses on the impacts of financial variables on FDI outflows for four largest industrial countries using dynamic time series methods. The results show that FDI outflows are non-stationary but have a long-run cointegrating relationship with real exchange rates. In addition, there are causal effects of exchange rates on direct investments in the short run. Multivariate cointegration analysis shows the significance of financial channels such as cost of capital and real wealth through which the real exchange rate effects operate. The effects of financial channels are comparable to those of the real wage rate channel. Overall, the present paper provides significant and methodologically consistent international evidence for dynamic interactions between FDIs and financial variables.

In contrast to the conventional international investment theory that emphasizes strategic or real economic variables, we advance a model of corporate international investments where financial variables play a crucial role. Time series methods are used to present evidence of the joint dynamic behavior of direct investment outflows and financial variables for four largest industrial countries during the period from 1975 to 2001 in the bivariate and multivariate contexts. The emphasis on dynamics and dimensional stability tests in this paper contrasts with existing FDI studies that utilize ordinary static regressions. The results of a bivariate analysis show that direct investment outflows generally have a cointegrating relationship with real exchange rates. Real exchange rates, therefore, have significant influences on FDI flows in a long-run equilibrium sense. The results from error correction models show that changes in real exchange rates influence the short-term dynamic adjustment path of FDIs toward their long-run equilibrium levels. Multivariate cointegration analysis indicates the presence of two financial channels – the cost of capital and real wealth – through which the effects of real exchange rate on FDIs may operate. For the four industrial countries as a whole, the significance of these financial channels is comparable to that of the real wage rate channel in the context of multivariate cointegration, although the financial channels appear to be more important in the US Overall, the present paper provides new evidence on the extent to which financial variables are important for FDIs in short and long run. Naturally, this is only a partial analysis focusing on financial variables, without due regard to real and strategic variables in a general equilibrium setting.