جریان‏های درونسوی سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی چین

This study examines the causality between FDI inflows and economic growth in case of China using a small sample cointegration test. The empirical results show that since economic reform FDI inflows have not caused economic growth, but the latter has caused the former.

It has often been argued that FDI inflow is one of the driving forces of economic growth in developing countries. Historical evidences are mixed. Of the so-called four east Asian tigers, Hong Kong and Singapore succeeded in attracting huge amount of FDI; however, South Korea and Taiwan did not attract it so much. Since economic reform in 1979, China has recorded remarkable economic growth rates; for instance, the annual average real GDP growth rate was as high as 8.3 percent during 1979–2001. In the meantime, China has actively tried to attract FDI inflows. FDI flows into China increased from US$ 0.9 billion in 1983 to US$ 46.9 billion in 2001 (Table 1). Chen, Chang, and Zhang (1995) evaluated that FDI had contributed to China's post-1978 economic growth by augmenting resources available for capital formation and export earnings. Meanwhile, the issue on the causality between FDI inflows and economic growth in case of China has seldom been analyzed rigorously. Although Qin, Cagas, Quising, and He (2006) revealed that economic growth caused investment in China, the latter was not restricted to FDI. Using a simulation, Dees (2001) showed that FDI has a long-run effect on output. The current study tests whether or not increase in FDI caused increase in economic growth of China with a cointegration test procedure allowing for different orders of integration and the Granger causality test using stationary data.

For the past rapid economic growth process, China has attracted huge amount of FDI. Although the causality between FDI inflows and real economic growth has important policy implications, it has seldom been analyzed with respect to China. The current study examines the concerned issue using Pesaran and Shin's (1999) small sample cointegration test procedure allowing for different orders of integration and the Granger causality tests. The empirical results show that FDI inflows have not caused real economic growth in China, but the latter is revealed to have caused the former. It implies that it would not be necessary for the Chinese government to provide various types of tax or financial incentives to attract foreign investors. Even without incentives to FDI, FDI inflows are expected to continue due to rapid economic growth. Up to now, reasons other than FDI inflows, for instance, export promotion as well as guaranteeing private property rights and smooth transition might have been more important in explaining rapid economic growth of China. Building efficient institutions not wasting resources would be necessary to lead FDI inflows to economic growth.