دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 101695
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

ارزش پیش بینی روزانه برای فتوولتائیک در بازار برق اسپانیا

عنوان انگلیسی
The value of day-ahead forecasting for photovoltaics in the Spanish electricity market
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
101695 2017 7 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Solar Energy, Volume 158, December 2017, Pages 140-146

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  ارزش پیش بینی روزانه برای فتوولتائیک در بازار برق اسپانیا

چکیده انگلیسی

In this study, we analyze various day-ahead production forecasts for a 1.86 MW photovoltaic plant considering different techniques and sets of inputs. A nRMSE of 22.54% was obtained for a Support Vector Regression model trained by numerical weather predictions (NWP). This model produced the most benefits. An annual forecasting value of 4788€ with respect to a persistence model was obtained for trading in the Iberian (Spain and Portugal) day-ahead electricity market. Annual value added by the NWP service totaled 2801€ and room for improvement regarding NWP variables rose to 3877€. As a general trend, it was found that smaller errors (RMSE) generated higher incomes. For each 1 kW h improvement in RMSE, the annual value of forecasting increased 22.32€. Nevertheless, some models that gave larger errors than others also brought greater benefits. Thus, market conditions must be considered to accurately evaluate model economic performance.