تجربیات سطح میکرو در تغییر سطح کلان: یک دیدگاه همگانی در چین چطور؟

An expanding and more lucrative private sector characterizes China’s economic transition over the last four decades. But have these labor market opportunities been equally distributed, or does historical timing of labor force entries matter? Drawing on a life-course, cohort perspective and nationally representative occupational histories (2003 and 2008 Chinese General Social Surveys), we examine the odds of a private-sector first job and of shifts from state- to private-sector jobs for two reform cohorts entering the labor market between 1978 and 2008. We find cohort variations in the impact of structural location (education and party affiliation) in predicting sector of first job and sector shifts. The least educated (high school dropouts) from the Late Reform cohort are most impacted by the expanding private sector, in terms of their first job (in private/hybrid firms and self-employment). Party membership takes on a different meaning over time, promoting Early Reform cohort members’ private-sector entry, but being a deterrent for Late Reform cohort members. A key potential consequence of Chinese economic reform based on our cohort comparisons: increasing transfer of those with less educational and political credentials from the state to the private sector, either through first-job availability or through (forced) self-employment following layoffs. The China case demonstrates the value of a cohort and life-course perspective grounded in careful institutional and historical analysis for capturing the impact of historical timing in shifting opportunity structures shaping individuals’ work lives and for understanding social change.