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With global annual sales exceeding $65 billion, the large civil aircraft industry is an important economic and strategic element of the European Union and US economies. Here we define large civil aircraft (LCA) as those aircraft with capacities exceeding 121 passengers and dedicated to the air passenger market served by commercial airlines. This paper employs a transformed log-centered market attraction model to forecast the US market share of LCA. This model specification ensures that the predicted market share is in the range [0,1] and that the sum of all predicted market shares is equal to 1.0, both logical process requirements. In this special case, where there are two producers, the market attraction model becomes a logit regression model. Here we specify the logit regression model as an autoregressive distributed lag model in which US market share is predicted by quantitative and qualitative predictor variables, an autoregressive lag operator and a linear trend component.

We define large civil aircraft (LCA) as those aircraft with a passenger capacity exceeding 121 passengers and dedicated to the air passenger market served by commercial airlines. The LCA industry is of significant strategic and economic value to the US and the European Union (EU). Global annual sales of LCA exceeded $65 billion in 1996, with these sales generating politically important jobs and exports. This paper describes predictive models for the US share of world and regional markets for three different classes of LCA. Until the late 1970s, US producers held an almost 100% market share in virtually all segments of the LCA market. However, major structural changes within the LCA industry over the past 25 years have resulted in dramatic US market share erosion, and the loss of this preeminent position. This loss in market leadership, coupled with the significant research and capital investment expenditures associated with the LCA industry, underscores the importance of identifying factors driving market share. A previous study by the US International Trade Commission (1993) reported limited success developing a regression model explaining the US share of world orders for LCA. This limited prior success and the little published empirical modeling of the market share of US LCA producers were the motivating factors for the present study. In this paper, we present a set of market attraction models for the US market share for three different classes of LCA. The market attraction models used are linear regressions that, in this application, take the form of logit regressions. The logit regression models are specified as autoregressive distributed lag models in which US market share is predicted by both quantitative and qualitative predictor variables, an autoregressive lag operator and a linear trend component. This model form insures logical consistency in predicted market share values (i.e., predicted US market share in the range [0,1] and predicted US and foreign market shares that sum to 1.0). The paper begins by providing a general overview of the LCA industry, including the classification system used to segment the LCA marketplace. The following section then describes the variables used in the current study, their nature and sources. Specifications for three commonly used market share models (i.e., the linear, multiplicative and market attraction models) are then provided as background to prior work in the field. We then show that in the special case of two producers, the market attraction model degenerates into a logit regression. The paper concludes with presentation and interpretation of the results.

The global LCA industry is of key economic and strategic importance to the US and the European Union. For the past 50 years the US has dominated this indus- try, however, Airbus Industrie has successfully chal- lenged this position and over the past 25 years capturedsigni " cant market share. The emergence of a strong foreign competitor and the large capital investment asso- ciated with LCA production has been the catalyst for major structural changes in the industry. The most recent change is the merger of Boeing and McDonnell Douglas, which reduced the global LCA industry to Boeing and Airbus Industrie. These two producers are vying for relative competitive position in the various LCA market segments, with market share used as an indicator of their relative competitive strength (March, 1990; US International Trade Commission, 1998). In this paper we have developed models for the US market share of Type 5, 6 and 7 aircraft, respectively, within di ! erent LCA market segments. A market attrac- tion model has been speci " ed in order to allow for the required characteristics of the market share measurement metric. Some clear patterns and corroboration of prior " ndings have resulted from the model development. Firstly, the importance of life-cycle costs as a driving factor for LCA producer market share is clearly evident. The three explanatory variables in this study used as proxies for life-cycle costs (FUEL, EFF and COST) were statistically signi " cant in all three models. It is evident that aircraft purchasing decisions are driven in large measure by initial acquisition cost e ! ectiveness and di- rect operational costs. Secondly, the impact of foreign exchange rate # uctuation (as measured by $ /ECU, the dollar to ECU exchange rate ratio) was not found to be a signi " cant factor across all aircraft types. It may be that " nancing instruments (e.g., currency hedges, and long- term " nancing) are to some degree insulating aircraft purchasing decisions from the vagaries of yearly currency # uctuations. Thirdly, a new aircraft model was found to impact market share in the launch year. These results con " rm the importance placed by LCA producers on the timing of new aircraft introductions. Lastly, there do not seem to be signi " cant market share di ! erences among the various LCA regional markets. This may re # ect consis- tent purchasing patterns across all airlines, or it may be indicative of poor homogeneity amongst the geographic clusters. This study adopted the industry accepted con- vention for world regional markets, with no attempt to aggregate based on other considerations.