قوانین و مقررات تجاری، سازگاری و اثر بازار خانه : مثالی از ژاپن

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies21 (4) (2007) 470–488.

Textbook exchange rate tests report evidence on the purchasing power parity hypothesis by either finding the nominal exchange rate to be cointegrated with price indices or the real exchange rate to be stationary in a unit root test. This holds for most OECD countries for which sufficiently long time series data are available.1 An exception is the Japanese–US real exchange rate, since the Japanese yen has appreciated in real terms by some 90% from 1972 until 1997.2 Attempts have been made to explain this real appreciation by the Balassa–Samuelson model.3 In this model a real appreciation of the yen results from prices of Japanese nontradables growing faster relative to prices of US nontradables, since Japanese productivity growth of the nontraded goods sector was behind those of the traded-goods sector. This effect has been confirmed to be empirically relevant by Marston (1987) and Rogoff (1992). However, this view has been challenged recently by two empirical criticisms.

This paper departs from traditional cointegration analysis of the real exchange rate by exploring both theoretically and empirically whether the real exchange rate in terms of producer price indices (the terms of trade) of two countries—one of which is catching up to the other—form a cointegrating relation with income variables. Two theoretical channels are offered: the demand-driven home-market effect and the supply-driven productivity-shock effect. According to the first channel, the relative domestic price rises, if the home country is catching up, because a larger share of world demand is attributed to domestic goods raising the home-market size. According to the second channel, the domestic relative price falls, if the domestic economy grows faster, because the relative domestic supply rises, while relative demand remains unchanged. From those theoretical models, a vector error correction form is derived which directly lends itself to the tools of cointegration analysis.