آمار گیری و اثرات آموزش و پرورش بر بیکاری در اروپا

We analyse the effects of demographic and education changes on unemployment rates in Europe. Using a panel of European countries for the 1975–2002 period - disaggregated by cohort and education - we empirically test the economic effects of the “baby bust” and the “education boom”. We find that structural shifts in the population age structure play an important role and that a significant share of variation in unemployment rates is also attributable to educational changes, the latter being usually neglected in aggregate studies. Results show that demographic and education shocks are qualitatively different for young (adult) workers as well as for more (less) educated people. Changes in the population age structure are positively related to the unemployment rate of young workers, while have no effect on adults. Conversely, changes in the education structure show a negative effect on the unemployment of the more educated. Labour market institutions also influence unemployment rates in different ways. Employment protection for regular workers increases unemployment rates, while temporary employment provisions reduce it. Unemployment benefits are found to have a displacement effect on unemployment, while corporatism of wage bargaining improves employment performance.

In recent decades most European economies have experienced significant changes in the population age structure which altered the relative position of young versus prime-age workers in the labour market. Over the period 1970–2000, the ratio of the youth population to the adult population increased in most countries during the 1970s and 1980s and then fell in the following decades. Average unemployment rates for young people also increased significantly, up to the late 1980s, and then slightly decreased in the following decades, while adults' unemployment varied only marginally. Over the same period European countries showed substantial changes in educational achievements: both the average number of years of education and the share of individuals with higher education increased significantly. Countries with traditionally low levels of education (at the start of the period) have been catching up, with the number of highly educated people growing in absolute and relative terms. Moreover, education appears to be an important determinant of individuals' performance in the labour market, for more educated workers are two to three times less likely to be unemployed as compared to their low-education counterparts (over the business cycle their relative rates tend to diverge, Quintini and Martin, 2006).

This paper has investigated the effects of demographic and educational change on unemployment rates, by cohort and education, in a number of European countries. Results show that demographic and education shocks are qualitatively different for young (adult) workers as well as for more (less) educated people. While adult workers and more educated individuals, in general, experience lower unemployment rates, changes in the population age structure (“baby bust”) appear to be positively related to young workers' unemployment rates. Conversely changes in the skill structure (“education boom”) reduce the unemployment of the more educated. In other words, we find that education matters: the share of those having more than compulsory education is found to be negatively related to the unemployment rate.