تجارت بین المللی و اقتصاد کلان دینامیک با اصطکاک های بازار کار

This paper studies how labor market frictions affect the consequences of trade integration in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous producer entry. Two main results emerge. First, trade integration is beneficial for welfare by inducing higher productivity, but unemployment can temporarily rise during the transitional adjustment. Labor market rigidities reduce gains from trade, even though they can mitigate short-run employment losses. Second, consistent with the data, the model predicts that stronger trade linkages lead to increased business cycle synchronization. The strength of this effect, however, depends on the labor market characteristics of the integrating partners.

Labor market institutions vary across countries, and substantial differences in labor market flexibility persist even within groups of countries with similar income levels.1 A recent and growing literature investigates the consequences of such heterogeneity for cross-country interdependence, studying how labor market rigidities affect the causes and consequences of international trade. An important conclusion of this research is that the institutional features of local labor markets shape the pattern of comparative advantage across countries, contributing to the determination of long-run outcomes of trade integration.2 Thus far, however, few works have addressed the implications of labor market rigidities for trade-induced macroeconomic dynamics. Important questions remain open for researchers and policymakers: How do labor market frictions affect the transition dynamics generated by trade integration? Are labor market frictions important for understanding the propagation of aggregate shocks through trade? The purpose of this paper is to address these questions, complementing the long-run perspective of the existing work.

I developed a two-country stochastic general equilibrium model of trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions. I used the model to study how labor market frictions affect macroeconomic dynamics following trade integration. In so doing, the paper contributes to the trade literature, which typically abstracts from the effects of stronger trade linkages on aggregate fluctuations, and the international macroeconomic literature by exploring the role of labor market frictions and trade in explaining international business cycles.