شرح معنایی وساختاری سناریوی بازار به روش بوته رویدادevent bush
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی|
|16320||2014||8 صفحه PDF||22 صفحه WORD|
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Decision Support Systems, Volume 57, January 2014, Pages 34–41
۲. یک داستان موردی از ویژگی چشمگیر بازار
۳. طرح و قالب روش «بوتة رویداد»
۴. مدل سازی داستان موردی به وسیلة بوتة رویداد
۵. بحث مفاهیم بازار و تحلیل مولفه ها
۶. نتیجه گیری
Considered is the retrospective application of a new method of knowledge engineering, the event bush, to a real collision that took place in the North-American market of cool sparkling drinks in the 1980s. The paper briefly introduces the modeled task, provides an outline of the method, presents the results of modeling and discusses them, stressing new opportunities for market analysis and directions of further work. The results of modeling provide ground to reasonably expect improvement of consulting and advising services with application of the event bush method.
To analyze and forecast the market, one needs to compare various scenarios of market development and behavior of players. In doing this, a question repeatedly posed by any analyst to him/herself is, how much the observed scenario or state of things resemble the known cases. Up to now, this question is being answered mostly intuitively, and following application of statistical computation, neural networks  or other mathematical modeling and decision support methods (see, e.g., ) has been based on intuitively felt similarity or difference. Successful attempts of more or less strict description of semantics of marketing are performed by means of ontology design  and , but ontologies describe classes, their properties and relations, which refer rather to a “fixed state” of market than to an a-developing environment, i.e., present rather “anatomy” than “physiology” of the context. Trying to cope with this shortcoming, the so-called dynamic ontologies , process ontologies (see, for instance, UN/CEFACT's Modeling Methodology — UMM, in ) and others were suggested. However, process ontologies simply take processes for another kind of “fixed” entities and do not display actual scenarios that take, or may take, place, and dynamic ontologies just postulate the fact that changes of given objects may occur in given time but do not specify what in particular can happen and in what way. The same can be generally referred to another well-known business and technical process modeling tool, the Integrated Definition (IDEF) 0 notation . Nonetheless, this method, being an extension of Structured Analysis and Design Technique (SADT; see, for instance, ), makes one step further and shows particular scenarios and, in the SADT framework, their hierarchical relationships.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
The market collision of shift of consumer's preference in the US from Coca-Cola to Pepsi-Cola and then back is well-known and instructive. The method of event bush, originally designed to organize knowledge in the geoscience, appeared, with further development, formal enough to be genuinely independent of geoscientific or any other context and pretends to cover a wide variety of tasks, the structure of which fits the architecture of event bush regardless of domain of knowledge. Analyzing marketing problem well falls in this set of tasks and appears to be much better conceivable when put into event bush framework. Moreover, such framework immediately opens opportunities to search for analogs in other fields, apply an armory of mathematical tools (deterministic, probabilistic and fuzzy), and do this less subjectively than before. This must substantially contribute to the quality of consulting and advising services throughout the world. However, to do this, a large number of event bushes must be produced quickly for various branches of business that can be better done by event bush editor software that needs to be created.