گیزلا - ارزیابی مبتنی بر GIS استفاده از زمین و تجزیه و تحلیل بازار کشاورزی تحت گرم شدن کره زمین

One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA – GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model – is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.