محدودیت های قرض گرفتن و صرفه جویی در مصرف احتمالی

This paper quantifies the effects of precautionary savings. It demonstrates that Zeldes' estimate of excess consumption growth for low asset holders is consistent with a dynamic general equilibrium model with uninsurable endowment shocks when borrowing is constrained at three months' worth of average wage income. I propose a Monte Carlo simulation of the stationary equilibrium as a method of indirectly testing the hypotheses of a no-borrowing specification and a natural debt limit specification. At the estimated borrowing constraint, an increase in endowment shocks within the range of empirical findings can cause a 1.6% increase in the savings rate and a 6.9% increase in capital.