ارزیابی ریسک نقص شبکه های برق در یک محیط قیمت گذاری بازار برق

This paper proposes a novel risk assessment method for power network failures considering a uniform-pricing market environment, different from previous risk assessment studies, which mainly emphasize technical consequences of the failures. In this type of market, dispatch infeasibilities caused by line failures are solved using a counter-trading mechanism where costs arise as a result of correcting the power dispatch. The risk index proposed takes into account these correction costs as well as the cost of the energy not served due to the failure, while considering an oligopolistic behavior of the generation companies. A 3-stage model is proposed to simulate the bidding behavior in the market, under different line failures scenarios. The risk index proposed and the method for its calculation are applied on an adapted IEEE 6-bus reliability test system. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the sensitivity of the results with respect to the level of competitiveness of the generation companies, measured by the conjectured-price response parameter which is assumed to be exogenous in our study.