بازار اوراق قرضه در آفریقا

African bond markets have been steadily growing in recent years, but nonetheless remain undeveloped. African countries would benefit from greater access to financing and deeper financial markets. This paper compiles a unique set of data on government securities and corporate bond markets in Africa. It then applies an econometric model to analyze the key determinants of African government securities market and corporate bond market capitalization. Government securities market capitalization is directly related to better institutions and interest rate volatility, and inversely related to smaller fiscal deficits, higher interest rate spreads, exchange rate volatility, and current and capital account openness. Corporate bond market capitalization is directly linked to economic size, the level of development of the economy and financial markets, better institutions, and interest rate volatility, and inversely related to higher interest rate spreads and current account openness. Policy implications follow.

The African Development Bank recently announced that it plans to launch a new bond program for infrastructure to raise up to US$40 billion for investments in projects such as ports and airports, highlighting the growing role for bond markets in financing development in sub-Saharan Africa.1 Yet bond markets in these countries are at a nascent stage of development and there is a strong need to promote their development. First, sub-Saharan Africa has been heavily dependent on external grants and concessional loans for funding capital spending and government deficits. Only a small number of countries have limited access to global capital markets.2 Additionally, western donors are now facing substantial fiscal challenges and consequently donor flows to sub-Saharan Africa may be scaled back significantly. Without access to alternative sources of finance, including bond markets, many African countries could find it difficult to finance critical needs. Second, well-functioning bond markets help sustain economic stability

This paper contributes to our understanding of sub-Saharan African government securities and corporate bond markets. While African countries have relied on government securities for financing fiscal deficits, domestic securities markets remain underdeveloped and most countries are overly dependent on foreign borrowing and bank borrowing, a few still from their central banks. Corporate bond markets remain at a nascent stage of development in most sub-Saharan African countries and, with the exception of South Africa, are small. In recent years, however, corporate bond markets have begun growing steadily and look set to become ever more important as a source of finance in the future, as African countries attempt to close the infrastructure and development gap with more advanced economies.