نقش IT در اقتصاد کره تحت کنترل IMF

During the period of IMF control of the Korean economy in 1997, development of IT was emphasized as a potential breakthrough for easing the crisis. This paper will analyze the potential of the IT industry for increasing the productivity of the Korean economy. Using the VIO model, the changes in Korea industries before and after IMF control are derived. However, the response to the change in the IT sector falls short of our expectations. Therefore, we conclude that IT policy should be market-oriented in order that even non-IT industries may be positively affected by the development of IT.

In 1997, when the Korean economy was under IMF control, the development in the Information Technology (IT) sector was emphasized as a breakthrough for easing the economic crisis since this sector has been more heavily invested than others. Furthermore, there was worldwide trust that IT would enhance efficiency in production. There has been considerable research concerning increase in productivity resulting from the development of IT. Morrison and Berndt (1991), Lichtenberg (1993), Oliner and Sichel (1994), Dewan and Kraemer (2000), and Pohjola (2001), analyzed whether IT contributed to an increase in productivity. The techniques they used were econometric models to find the effectiveness of IT on production with a view toward testing Solow’s productivity paradox. In this paper, we are going to analyze the Korean economy case using a Variable Input–Output (denoted, “VIO” hereafter) model, a supplemented and modified model in place of existing Input–Output analysis model, to analyze how the development of IT contributes to the production growth in other sectors. By comparing the change in production in 1995 and 1998 due to the cost change in IT industry, we can trace IT’s influence on the other sectors in the Korean economy. In particular, the role of IT as a measure for overcoming the Korean economic crisis will be analyzed. The IT industry’s proportionate share of the Korean economy has increased from about 7% of GDP in 1995, to almost 10% of GDP in 1998, and to 13% of GDP in 2000. This rapidly growing industry is tested to be a breakthrough for easing the IMF crisis in Korea. The data to be used are 1995 and 1998 Input–Output tables issued by the Bank of Korea. These tables were originally composed of 402 industries, which were reduced down to 31 industries. The IT industry was adjusted according to the IT industry classifying system arranged by the Ministry of Information and Communication. This paper consists of four chapters: Chapters 2, 3, and 4 describe a basic model in this analysis using a VIO model, empirical results, and policy suggestions for main and significant data revealed in this research, respectively.

The test for the potential of IT in the recovery of the Korean economy under IMF control fell short of our expectation in this study. For three years between pre and post IMF control, the economic structure stays almost the same by not having reversals in the sign of production activity in the substitution effect. Only two industries have positive effect and the rest do not show their reversals from negative to positive activity. This indicates that the Korean economy is not yet of an IT friendly structure, which improves industries’ production technology in accordance with the development of IT. In total effect, 14 industries in 1995 and 9 industries in 1998 have reversals in the sign from negative to positive production activities. This result is thought to be from the income effect due to the increase in value added paid to the economic agents employed additionally according to the expansion of usage of IT. Only increases in demand for the commodities due to the increase in GDP increase the production of those industries, not by the change in technological method. This explains that IT as the strategic industry to strengthen the Korean economy proves disappointing in its ability to enhance the technological improvement in production. In order to make the Korean economy more compatible with the IT industry, the authors recommend ascertaining which industries are most technologically related with the IT industry. Implementation of an efficient policy is based upon understanding which industries are related to those industries that benefit the most from the spillover effect of IT. Thus, a policy based on picking an IT industry only as the imagined winner should be rejected. Instead, a market oriented policy that makes the economy IT friendly is recommended. This paper has examined the particular situation of IMF control in 1998. However, this result is thought to be inconclusive in assessing the potential of IT. It would be desirable to test the topic in this paper with data from the year 2000, which will be released next year by the Bank of Korea. We are more confident that we overcame the impasse of IMF control to a certain degree as of the year 2000.