ارتباط قیمتی بین فلزات غیر آهنی و چینی بازارهای بین المللی کالا بر اساس مدل VAR-DCC-GARCH

Using VAR-DCC-GARCH model, the literature on commodity price was extended by exploring the co-movement between Chinese nonferrous metal prices and global nonferrous metal prices represented by the nonferrous metal prices from London Metal Exchange (LME). The results show that LME nonferrous metals prices still have a greater impact on Chinese nonferrous metals prices. However, the impact of Chinese nonferrous metals prices on LME nonferrous metals prices is still weak except for lead price. The co-movement of nonferrous metal prices between LME and China presents hysteretic nature, and it lasts for 7–8 trading days. Furthermore, the co-movement between LME nonferrous metals prices and Chinese nonferrous metals prices has the characteristics of time-varying, and the correlation of lead prices between LME and China is the more stable than all other nonferrous metals prices.