ایجاد ارتباط با بازار از دست رفته: بررسی تأثیر بازار اوراق قرضه بر رشد اقتصادی

Past studies have largely focused on the positive role of banks and stock markets on economic growth. This paper adds bond markets as a third key component of the financial system. Using a panel data set of 38 countries, and applying the generalized method of moments techniques for dynamic panels, we find that (i) stock market development is positively related to economic growth; (ii) the contributing role of bank credit to economic growth diminishes as domestic bond markets develop; (iii) government bonds are positively related to economic growth, while the effects of corporate bonds change from negative to positive, as domestic financial structures expand in size and diversity.

The neoclassical economists' view, that financial markets play subordinate roles to the real sector of economy, has long lost its fulcrum. This view has been replaced in the literature by the general proposition that financial markets promote economic growth by not only promoting capital accumulation but also fostering efficient allocation of resources and technological innovations (Levine, 1997 and Wachtel, 2001). It should be pointed out at the outset that economic growth is both country-specific and time-specific. It is a complex process of innovation which is shaped by the dynamic interplay between the industrial structure and financial system peculiar to individual countries at a given point in time.1 While it appears that there exists a general consensus around the idea that an efficient mechanism of financial intermediation is critical in mobilizing savings and diversifying investment risks, growth literature shows sharply divided views on the specific direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. (Beck and Levine, 2004 and Hassan et al., 2011) On the one hand, a priori intuition and empirical evidence have given rise to a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. For instance, LaPorta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) find that countries with legal systems which promote good corporate governance and creditors' rights had faster economic growth, while Goldsmith (1969), King and Levine, 1993a and King and Levine, 1993b, Rousseau and Wachtel (2000) and Beck and Levine (2004) affirm the positive impact that well-functioning banks and stock markets have had on economic growth. Alternatively, Lucas (1998) and Favara (2003) are skeptical about the positive role of financial markets that has had on economic growth. Rajan and Zingales (2003), Allen, Qian, and Qian (2005), Shyn and Oh (2008), Ergungor (2008) and Jalil, Feridun, and Ma (2010) each refute the validity of the premise that determinants of economic growth would feature such a positive role for financial markets. In particular, Ergungor (2008) shows that economic growth effects and financial system development are bidirectional, and thus, a country's financial system's structure is irrelevant to economic growth. Rajan and Zingales (2003) draw attention to “a great reversal” of economic growth experienced by Argentina during the twentieth century despite her earlier success in financial development, while Allen et al. (2005), and Shyn and Oh (2008) point to recent rapid economic growth achieved by South Korea and China without the benefit of a well-developed domestic financial markets. The overwhelming majority of literature on the relationship between financial markets and economic growth has focused on two key institutions – banks and stock markets – with scant attention to bond markets. There are two major reasons for researchers' collective inattention to bond markets: First, bond financing is subsumed as part of debt financing, which has been historically dominated by banks. This point is especially relevant in many economies where banks have preempted bond markets in general and corporate bond markets in particular with their high capitalization and liquidity (Ma, Remolona, & He, 2006). Second, while stocks are traded at exchanges or their equivalent and their price discovery process can be analyzed by trading data, which is publicly available, bonds, are traded over-the-counters, where transaction data are not transparent nor made publicly available. The motivations for our study are: First, little is known about the micro-structure of bond markets, such areas as price formation and how the liquidity necessary for bond purchases is supplied. This is true even for the U. S. bond market, the world's largest and most liquid market. (Biais, Decierck, Dow, Portes, & von Thaddden, 2006) Second, the development of domestic government bond markets historically took place well before domestic stock markets came into being ( Litan, Pomerleano, & Sundararajan, 2003). As a result, in many countries, especially in Europe, the total amount of bonds outstanding is greater than that of credit provided by banks, and the size of government bond markets trump that of the respective stock markets ( Biais et al., 2006 and Fink et al., 2003). 2Third, bond markets are expected to experience rapid growth worldwide for two reasons: i) Many countries now nurture their domestic bond markets as a defensive measure against the type of financial crises which many Asian and Latin American countries faced in the 1990's and ii) growing numbers of affluent investors in developing countries are pouring their savings into bond markets in search of high yield and portfolio diversification (See Braun and Briones, 2005, de la Torre et al., 2007, Herring and Chtusripitak, 2000 and Tudor, 2012). Finally, as Levine (1997) notes, any debate which focuses solely on bank or equity market-based systems may be misdirected, and future research on financial structure relative to economic growth should include more diverse countries other than the U. S., U. K. and Euro-zone countries. The dearth of transaction data notwithstanding, several studies including Herring and Chtusripitak (2000), Braun and Briones (2005) and Fink, Haiss, Kirchner, and Moser (2006) examine the relationship between bond markets and economic growth. On balance, their finding is that the relationship is positive. It should be noted that none of these studies have used panel data methods. These methods enable regression analysis of a pooled data set involving a spatial and temporal dimension and allow for control of the effects of missing variables and the bias arising from simultaneity of key cross-sectional data being analyzed.3Recently, Beck and Levine (2004) employed a panel data analysis on the effects of two sectors of financial markets − banks and stock markets − on economic growth. Our paper extends the Beck and Levine (2004) study by introducing the third major financial sector; the domestic bond market, which we divide into two subsectors; government and corporate bonds. In addition, as shown in 5 and Appendix II, we also refine Beck and Levine's system estimator by including the small-sample correction for two-step standard errors developed by Windmeijer (2005). We analyze, in this study, 38 countries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, the U. K. and the U. S. Our findings are that; (i) stock market development is positively related to economic growth; (ii) the contributing role of bank credit to economic growth diminishes as domestic bond markets develop; (iii) government bonds are positively related to economic growth, while the effects of corporate bonds change from negative to positive, as domestic financial structures expand in size and diversity. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 starts with a preliminary description about the bond market including its role and the historical development in various parts of the world. Section 3 provides a brief survey of literature. Section 4 describes definitions of key variables, descriptions of data, descriptive statistics, and preliminary findings from OLS. Section 5 discusses the model and presents the empirical results. Concluding remarks are found in Section 6.

In this paper, we have examined the effects of the development of a domestic bond market on economic growth, a subject that has largely been ignored in the empirical literature. While we have dealt neither with the different types of bonds (e.g., fixed, floating rates or zero-coupon bonds) nor bond derivatives (e.g., bond futures and options) in this study, it stands to reason that bond markets complement banks and stock markets in deepening the financial market of an economy. For instance, in the absence of bond markets, banks tend to become overcapitalized and that may lead them to make suboptimal or unsound loans. With well-developed bond markets, banks invest in bonds, and in so doing, reduce information asymmetries which promote the efficient uses of resources. This is the reason the World Bank urged developing countries to accelerate the deepening of their domestic bond markets long before the financial crises in Asia, Russia and Latin America in the late 1990's (Dalla et al., 1995). Consistent with previous studies, our findings shows that both stock markets and banks help promote economic growth, even though the statistical relationship between banking growth and economic growth changes from positive to negative as domestic bond markets, especially those of corporate bonds, expand and overall financial structure matures. We find that the simple correlation coefficients among the three sectors – bank, bond and stock market – are mildly negative for bond and bank credit and mildly positive for stock market. We can deduce from this that differences in the composition and institutions of financial markets do matter, as the three major sectors – banks, stock markets and bond markets – do not grow simultaneously, but they complement each other at different stages of their respective growth. This finding buttresses the general proposition that necessary conditions for bond market development are similar to those that foster the development of a country's banking sector and that when we introduce bonds into the analysis, debate may well shift from the relative merit of a bank-based and equity-based financial system to a bipolar system comprising of debt, which include bank loans and bonds, and equity financing (Burger & Warnock, 2006). Our findings on the effects of government and corporate bonds are quite revealing and informative in understanding the roles of the two markets on economic growth. First, we find that the relationship between the overall bond market and economic growth is significantly positive for government bonds while it is insignificantly negative for corporate bonds. It also seems that the effect of government bonds is dominant so that the effects of overall bond market are positive although not statistically significant. Note that the significantly positive effect of government bonds arises even when government consumption, which has negative effects on economic growth, is included in the specification. This finding is consistent with previous studies on government bonds cited in Section 3. Second, our study shows that the relationship between corporate bond market development and economic growth changes from negative for a study period covering from 1989 to 2003 to positive for this study period covering from 1989 to 2010.15This finding confirms earlier studies: To wit, the expanded bond markets together with advance in economy's financial structure contribute to economic growth through technological innovations and enhanced labor productivity in the private sector (Fink et al., 2006 and Ritter, 2005). In summary, the literature is still divided on the directional causality of the three major financial markets – banking, bond and equity stock that have on economic growth. The division is understandable in view of the fact, as Hassan et al. (2011) aptly observes, empirical literature on the subject tries to combine the endogenous growth theory and micro structure of financial systems, both of which are still undergoing evolutionary changes. Our study contributes to the empirical literature with the findings (i) that there is a significantly positive relationship between economic growth and the expansion of stock market, and (ii) that the relationship between bank credit and economic growth as well as that between bond markets and economic growth are time-varying and bidirectional: Namely the contributing role of bank credit to economic growth is significantly positive during early stages of economic growth with relatively underdeveloped financial structure, but this positive relationship changes to a negative relationship as domestic corporate bond markets develop along with the development of financial structure of the thirty eight sample countries covered in our study.